dan's blog

 My story begins in the summer of’ '63 after my junior year at the University of Colorado and ends two years later when I returned to Boulder after I finished hitchhiking around the world. Unfortunately, I must rely on my memory because Hurricane Floyd destroyed my notebook and photos. This was a very low-budget trip taken by a 22-year-old kid who learned the benefits of tolerance, patience, perseverance, and self-confidence from wonderful people in 21 countries. My Story will unfold over an undetermined number of episodes written over an unknown amount of time. 

Episodes 1-8 follow following Episode 9

EPISODE #9

John's surprise announcement disappointed me. We had traveled a bumpy road together since we made that shotgun decision heading home from a party in Boulder nine months ago. We were good friends, and I had looked forward to circling the world with him. After all, that was the point of all this. But I did not waver for one second. I was going. Dumb, fearless, and ready to make my own decisions whatever happens.

It was May and we were almost out of days to cross off on the house wall. I had to quit my last job, get a passport, reserve passage on a ship, join the International Youth Hostel Association, and obtain a proper International Certificate of Vaccination.

I cannot help comparing those tasks now and then and realizing how starkly different that process has become in the last 60 years. The results are the same – a trip abroad. At that time, I researched printed material at the San Francisco Public Library, no Google; talked to real people over a landline and pay phones, no AI on cells; paid cash, no credit cards or online transfers; US Mail, no email or messages; and brick and mortar stores, no online stores and all their issues. Is it easier now? Sometimes, only sometimes.

I gave Weyerhauser two weeks' notice. On my last day, my boss shook my hand for the first time and wished me well. I sensed a mix of skepticism and admiration in his tone. He was about my father's age.

I finished the passport application in three stops. I went to the post office for information, to a photography store for a passport photo, and back to the post office to complete the application and pay, When the passport arrived in a few weeks with its sea-blue, durable cover and US-centric pages it instantly became a prized possession.

I equally treasured my ticket to Japan. After research I selected the American President Line's SS President Wilson departing from San Francisco on some date I don't recall in early June 1964 and arriving in Yokohama, Japan 14 days later with a one-day stop in Hawaii. My steerage accommodations cost between $200-300, including food and the option to travel five days to Hong Kong at no additional cost on the date I chose to leave Japan. A true good deal. I accepted without learning what steerage meant.

But I knew that crossing the Pacific Ocean on a 600-foot ship was an adventure. And that was all I needed to know. Unfortunately, this adventure has almost disappeared. Ocean liners like the President Wilson disappeared like Studebakers. Now, only the Queen Mary 2 transports patient travelers round trip from New York to London. I doubt that she has steerage accommodations.

I purchased my ticket at the American President Line San Francisco office. I paid the sales agent cash. Credit cards did not exist. She probably had to see my passport, which lengthened the process to perhaps 10 minutes. The ticket I held in my hand announced the pier where President Wilson would be berthed, the date of departure, the time I would get on the ship, and the time the ship dropped its lines and began its voyage across the Pacific Ocean.

My mind fell away. I wanted to show the ticket to strangers and sing the news in the street like a star in a 60's musical.

I also joined the International Youth Hostel Association by returning its membership form and sending the nominal fee of $10 as I recall. They promptly mailed my membership card and the soft-covered information book listing member hostels all over the world including address, phone number, cost, ($2-5), and important facts about each hostel, such as food availability sleeping arrangements, and public transportation. During the trip, I slept in hostels every night except for a park bench in Osaka, Japan, a very cheap hotel in Hong Kong, one night in a private home in Pakistan, and, perhaps, a few unlisted YMCAs.

Finally, I returned to the University of California Hospital in Berkeley to get the doctor's signature on my International Certificate of Vaccination verifying that I had all the necessary shots.

I successfully carried the passport, health certificate, hostel membership card, and information book with me at all times during the trip. I recognized their importance and realized that replacement would be a horrible experience.

It was time to unplug the cord to San Francisco and return to Colorado to say goodbye to my parents. I packed what I could carry and gave the rest away. John dropped me off east of the Bay Area suburbs. To save money, I intended to hitchhike to Denver and back.

I would sail in 20 days.

PREFACE

 Hurricane Floyd destroyed my notebook and photos. This was a very low-budget trip taken by a 22-year-old kid who learned the benefits of tolerance, patience, perseverance, and self-confidence from wonderful people in 21 countries. My Story will unfold over an undetermined number of episodes written over an unknown amount of time. 

 My story begins in the summer of’ '63 after my junior year at the University of Colorado and ends two years later when I returned to Boulder after I finished hitchhiking around the world. Unfortunately, I must rely on my memory because

 My story begins in the summer of’ '63 after my junior year at the University of Colorado and ends two years later when I returned to Boulder after I finished hitchhiking around the world. Unfortunately, I must rely on my memory because Hurricane Floyd destroyed my notebook and photos. This was a very low-budget trip taken by a 22-year-old kid who learned the benefits of tolerance, patience, perseverance, and self-confidence from wonderful people in 21 countries. My Story will unfold over an undetermined number of episodes written over an unknown amount of time. 

Beginning today, I will use this blog to do what I am urging you to do – tell your story before it escapes.

I have heard many men tell stories of their past. At the dinner break in our monthly card game a few months ago, Ted spontaneously told us about his work with airplane equipment in China and Southeast Asia decades ago. Later that week, among a different cast of characters, Don delivered an unprompted monologue about working on an Alaskan fishing boat when he was young. I have heard Jimmy’s story about tobacco farming in North Carolina and his father-in-law’s story about growing huge tomatoes in Ohio. 

As I listened to these storytellers, I deeply sensed that these men needed to tell the stories and that they felt better for having told them. I realized that probably millions of Olde Goats have untold stories. I created this website for them about two months ago. After the site went live, I found Dr. Jeremy Nobel’s article “Writing as an Antidote to Loneliness”. Dr. Nobel, a physician and a professor at Harvard Medical School, founded The Foundation for Art and Healing, which advocates using the healing power of all creative art forms, including writing.

Usually, this is done in groups. However, not everyone wants to join a group. This website, our oldegoats.com website, invites those who may be more comfortable online to tell their stories. I agree that storytelling helps the lonely, but I believe it benefits all Olde Goats, from the very lonely to the most content. 

What is a story? Whatever is comfortable for you. It can be a few lines at a time. I will tell my story in weekly fragments.

Our parents, aptly named the Greatest Generation, toughed it out through the Great Depression and WWII. The generations after us have been monstrously controlled by the computer and social media in ways not yet apparent. The current herd of Olde Goats came of age in the '50s, '60s, and '70s. Personally, I think we were the most fortunate of generations because we had unequaled Freedom of Choice. The post-war economic boom created disposable income that supported a long list of the previously unimaginable such asrock n' roll, fast food, drive-in movies, and rebellious good times. The government built an interstate system, kept rules to a minimum, and took us into a war that sobered us up at a terrible cost. We have a Google-sized library of good stories that start with those days and run up to this moment. 

My story starts in the summer of '63, after my junior year at the University of Colorado. John, my best friend from high school, and I were driving back to Denver from a party in Boulder Canyon. He attended the University of California-Berkeley. We both expected to graduate next year. We were searching for an answer to the question that had contaminated conversations for months:

Then what? 

MY STORY  #2

John drove his father’s MG that night. I don’t think we had any beer because of the twisting road down from the mountains. Our brief discussion about our future ended without a resolution. I continued to think about it as if the headlights cutting through the black would reveal the answer. 

John and I became friends late in high school. Our families could have posed as typical families  for Norman Rockwell. They had been planted in the poverty of the Great Depression and nurtured by the economic success of the booming economy of the 1950’s to reach middle class. Our successful businessmen dads worked hard, our moms cooked, cleaned, shopped, and, most importantly, raised the kids in their image.

My dad worked for the Better Business Bureau beginning in Peoria, where I was born, then to Buffalo, Akron, and finally promoted to manager of the new Denver office. We moved there in the late 1950’s. Denver had just begun to grow. We lived in a nice house in Denver, but I think that my father understood that my mother wanted more. She searched relentlessly, and found a building lot in Cherry Hills, a maturing subdivision that would become one of the most exclusive areas in the Denver area. 

Her choice was wise, because property values did increase, but not smart because they did not have the money to build the house she wanted. When they could not pay the builder, he walked away. They did all the landscaping and my father finished most of the interior. They tasked my two sisters and I with cleaning up the construction debris of wood scraps and broken bricks and often disciplined us by sentencing us to work the woodpile. 

The school board built our brand-new high school for the future just southeast of the City of Denver. John and I graduated as part of the school’s first class to attend for four years. Some of our classmates came from poor families in the undeveloped rural areas of the school district. Other classmates lived in middle-class suburban developments. The district also included Cherry Hills.  As very wealthy families moved in, they quickly outnumbered the middle-class Cherry Hills residents.

During high school, I came not to like living in Cherry Hills because I felt a sense of relative poverty. I know this sounds strange and perhaps selfish, but I was teenager with immature ideas.  I have had many friends who grew up genuinely poor. Childhood poor as in not enough money for food and ragged clothes. Relative poverty does not compare to the real thing. But my mother, who grew up poor, loved quality things - her clothes, furniture, car. All of it. Honestly, I do not know how my dad kept up. And she consciously taught us to value the same the things. 

There was no way I could keep up with the kids from rich families even though I began working at my father’s office at 13 filing papers and held other jobs after school and during summers until I graduated. I bought a car and other things. But it was different. The Dire Straits line “…money for nothing and the chicks for free.” applies. Not only did I know that I could not keep up, but I knew that these rich kids knew that I could not keep up. I did not like those feelings of inequality and patronization.

So, thinking about future, I knew absolutely that I did not want to follow my parents’ dream for me. I needed freedom and an exploratory challenge. As John piloted around the last curve revealing the night lights of Denver, the answer shot impulsively from the heart to my mouth, bypassing my brain.

“Let’s hitchhike around the world,” I said. 

MY STORY 3 

Hitchhike around the world? 

At 21? No experience, no credentials, no backup?

Naïve. Ridiculous. Really stupid. So judged the older generation.

But place this idea in its chronological context. From 1960 to 1962, JFK had unlocked the chains that had shackled my generation with caution and common sense. He gave us permission to go far and fast into space and asked us to spend two years of our life improving the lives of others in faraway countries. He spoke to us and for us.

I am confident that if I had asked The President  whether he approved of my decision, he would have released me to my adventure and told me to properly represent the United States and to be respectful.

I was 90% sure John would agree. Our close friendship in high school spilled over into the summers when he came home from California. We read Kerouac and Ferlinghetti and were drawn to the beatnik counterculture that flourished in New York and San Francisco..

I gave him a very sparse 1-2-3 skeleton of the plan; One, earn enough to get to San Francisco; Two, work and save for one year, Three, in June 1964 depart. Simple, right? I was too young to know that the devil is in the details.

John bought in immediately. He said we could stay temporarily at an apartment his cousin, a professor at Stanford, owned in the bohemian North Beach area until we found a place. His parents told him that he  could take the early 50s Plymouth station wagon. This news fit flawlessly into my plan. Then came the realities.

First, I no longer had a relationship with my father. After a couple days of his insults and discouraging words, he turned to ferocious glares and silence. In retrospect, I understand his position. He had to quit college after three years to go to work. Despite a very successful career, he never hung a diploma on his office wall. His son completed three years of college and stood two semesters away from becoming the first person to graduate in his family. Although my mother continued to feed me, she was consumed by fear and worry.

Second, I wanted  to leave as soon as I had enough money to survive until I got a job in San Francisco. I did not know that amount, but I calculated that by July 1 I would earn enough at my summer job as a cashier at a horse racetrack. Then along came the second reality. I got fired for the only time in my life because I forgot turn in a cash drawer at the end of my shift. No money was lost, but the boss invoked a zero-tolerance policy. I began hustling. 

We decided to go after we delivered telephone books for six days. I I tossed a laundry bag of clothes, a sleeping bag and my typewriter in the back. My mom gave me a long hug. I did not see my dad. 

We headed for Wyoming because John wanted to see Yellowstone and I wanted to see the new Space Needle. When we left Seattle, the excitement of a life in San Francisco consumed me. I expected that I would quickly find a good job, that we would find a reasonable place to live, that we would enjoy the city, and that I would save enough money to travel in a year.

I did not know that SF would chew me up and spit me out as a different person,

MY STORY #4

Dear reader, I must explain why I paused writing My Story two months ago. I wrote my first version of this San Francisco section from memory. It read like a  travelogue.  I did not like it. So, I had to think about how to rewrite this piece because I did not come to SF as a sightseer. I came to prepare for my adventure. As I thought about rewriting, I had this remarkable realization that I had gone to San Francisco to learn about myself. I didn’t know it at the time, but it was as if I had gone to a boot camp, except that I did not receive a course syllabus, nor did anyone grade me. I alone determined if I learned enough to  take care of myself thousands of miles away as an adventurous traveler.

I only had a naked assumption about my future  when John wheeled onto the Golden Gate Bridge and the San Francisco panorama opened as brilliantly as a Georgia O'Keeffe flower. The blue San Francisco Bay framed the hills crowded with multicolored buildings. I rolled down the window to absorb the smells and sounds of this city as John  introduced me to this place that was like no other.

This first impression strengthened my belief I had chosen the right city to enjoy while I promptly found a job and saved my money to go hitchhike around the world next June. I expected this to mimic my routine for last 15 years in school ---attend classes, study, have fun, make good grades, and be promoted to the next grades.  I assumed that I  would simply substitute a job for classes. How hard could that be? I was a rookie green in the realities of the world. 

For example, I did not know that “assume” is a trick word with a dangerous meaning. I do not think that the inherent danger of using this word can be taught. I believe that it must be learned. And I learned it multiple times during the next 11 months.  

Honestly, I knew little about life. I was a sheltered suburban white boy. I knew nothing about the qualities needed to travel alone and on the cheap in truly foreign countries like India and Afghanistan.  I did not know that I would acquire these qualities as unexpected dividends during my life in San Francisco.

Because I was on my own, I simply dealt  with each problem and forged ahead toward my goal which built my self-confidence and taught me basic skills. Amazingly, when I left for Japan, i had unconsciously prepared myself for almost all the new occurrences and new experiences that I encountered during the trip.

My first problem was serious. My assumption that I would find a full-time job during the first week - Or the second or the third or the first month - was wrong. I only found an occasional day job lifting or cleaning. John and I needed money to move out of our temporary quarters in his cousin’s apartment. I got so short on funds that I pawned my typewriter which was my most valuable possession.  I was glad for John, but it hurt when he got the well-paying job that we both had applied for.

I learned my first lesson: Never assume.

I was broke, nearly homeless, disappointed, and unhappy. This was the first problem that I had to solve by myself. Remember, cell phones did not exist in 1963, Nor did social media or You Tube. It was my decision to make about myself. Was I going to keep searching for a job, any job, or was I going to quit and drag my miserable self back to Colorado. 

I learned this about myself: I don’t quit unless it is the only option.

I gave up my search for a good paying desk job like John got. I was open to any job, and  I decided that  the best place to find any job  is to look for jobs no one else wants. I remembered seeing a reoccurring ad in the want ads for newspaper route delivery. Paid weekly. Car required. I cut a deal with John to use his car in the early morning and answered the ad.

At 5 a.m. the next morning I picked up a stack of the San Francisco Chronicle, known as “The Chron”, a list of addresses, and a map showing my territory on Russian Hill from the route manager.  . 

I was employed.   

 
MY STORY #5

At 5:30 a.m. on my first day delivering papers, I stood under the streetlight to read the boundary map I got from my route manager. I made a mental note to bring a flashlight. I could not make that note on my phone because I did not have one. No cell, no iPad, no Siri, no GPS, no trainer, no guide. In one direction the streets flowed up Russian Hill through my area in a sensible grid pattern. Between these streets, a collection of old pedestrian walkways twisted up the Hill briefly before merging into the maze separating old Russian Hill residences. I folded some papers into my carrier bag and started up the nearest walkway. I had to get very close to the addresses to read them in the dim dawn light. It was a strange morning. Here I was alone in a place I had never been, doing a task I had never done, solving a puzzle I had never solved. I made mistakes. More than once I made a second trip up a walkway or exited the area onto a different street from where I parked the car. The first day took four hours. I cut that time in half on the second day. I proceeded with my rule of halves and continued to reduce my completion by halves until I became proficient at one hour. I measured my customers' satisfaction with the bottle of Remy Martin and the multiple plates of cookies I found outside the doors during the Christmas Season.This job improved my patience and perseverance. The fact that I couldn't call for help made me stronger and more able to make good decisions and weigh my experiences and knowledge before deciding:When to leave, where to go. When to say yes, when to say no.This experience later guided me to decide correctly to accept the invitation to climb Mt. Fuji and to reject the invitation to teach English in Vietnam.This job also improved my finances. I was not paid enough to open a savings account, but John and I could look for extra cheap housing. I wanted to stop sleeping on the living room floor at  John's cousin's apartment. We did find an ultra-cheap old beat-up house on Castro Street where the hills begin. The owner intended to demolish it in the summer and did not care what we did. I recall he charged maybe $100 a month rent, but no damage deposit which would have been a joke. It had a stove, hot water heater, furnace, and a semi-attached bath. Semi-attached means that we had to go out the back door and make a hard left into the bathroom which had a sink, a toilet, a shower, and no heat. I moved up from sleeping on the living room floor to sleeping on the floor of my own room. So, I was living large. One weekend I bought the cheapest wall paint I could find. It was ghastly blue. I painted monthly calendars through next May on the walls. I marked off days by the handful on the weekends when I had time to open the paint. I never had a guest. John may have had a girl over. I don't know.I considered the house as little more than a place to sleep, but it prepared me for what otherwise might have been some challenging accommodations on the trip such as the triple bunks of steerage class on the ship to Japan, the crowded main deck on the tramp steamer from Malaysia to India, and many others that lacked the conveniences and comforts of Castro St.The newspaper delivery money paid my share of the rent and food, but I could not save anything. I definitely needed a second job to save money for my trip. Daily, after delivering the last paper, I'd come home, check the classified and other sources for new listings, send resumes and applications, and request interviews. When I could do no more, I often hiked over Telegraph Hill past Coit Tower and down to the docks which became my place to gather myself and keep the faith.After I returned from this trip, I heard Otis Redding's. “Sittin’ on the Dock of the Bay.” Those words flashed me back to my time hanging out at the docks. Some say that the song reflects depression. I disagree. I think it’s a song of hope.Otis, and I, each waited patiently for our respective ships to come in. Unfortunately, Redding was killed in a plane crash in Madison, Wisconsin, two days after the song was recorded in 1967. He could not revel in the shipful of awards the song won after its release in 1968 including topping the charts and two Emmys. It lived on to be named the sixth most-performed song of the 20thCentury with more than 6,000,000 radio performances.Fortunately, my ship arrived shortly in the shape of a second job. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-q559-hhUAProvided to YouTube by Universal Music Group [Sittin' On] The Dock Of The Bay · Otis Redding Remember Me ℗ 1992 Fantasy,.BACK STORY .Although he identified "' Frisco Bay" in the song, Redding reportedly was inspired while on a houseboat tied up in Sausalito on Richardson Bay, a small finger bay off San Francisco Bay.  

MY STORY #6 

The Weyerhauser Steamship Company probably hired me because I was good with numbers. It didn't hire me for my looks. I wore a pair of old black shoes crudely polished, a wrinkled pair of trousers without a belt, new white dress shirt with a new clip-on tie, and a sport coat borrowed from John's cousin to the interview. I got the job because I could operate an adding machine and reminded the interviewer of his grandson. I remember these details because I really needed the job.

I thought it was a cool job because it worked well with my newspaper route and paid $300 monthly. I got home, got clean, and caught the streetcar to the downtown San Francisco office building where I sat at my desk from 8:30 to 5:00 checking ships’ manifests. Believe me, I followed my manager’s directions without screwing up. I figured I could save about one half of each month's pay, but I daily read the classified because I needed more money. 

My third job at Crocker Citizens Bank fit my needs exactly. I worked from  6:00 pm to midnight or whenever we finished Monday through Friday. I don't remember the pay, but it exceeded expectations because of the hours. 

I took the streetcar home about midnight, slept till the 5:00 am alarm, delivered the papers, got to Weyerhauser by 8;30 am, and went to the bank at 6:00 pm. Could I do that now? No way. But back then I thought I was like a rock.

At the bank I learned about my first computers which were giant machines that spit out 2-inch-thick stacks of printouts containing lists of checks the bank cashed that day. And most importantly, I spent time with five of the most delightful coworkers ever -  Maria and another woman who were housewives and moms; Joe, about whom I cannot remember much; Stefan, a student at the University of San Francisco, and Lenny. Lenny, who was black, was the first nonwhite person that I spent any time with. He ran the computer room

Nightly as the newest hire, I trekked to the computer room multiple times to carry the printouts from the computer to my coworkers. If the computer had not finished printing Lenny and I would talk.I believe that we came to understand that we meant no harm to each other. We even managed the light trash talk favored by men playing a Sunday morning basketball game. I credit my experience with Lenny as crucial to my ability during my trip, without fear or concern, to be the only white person standing on a train full of Japanese, or sitting in a room full of Indians, or walking down a street full of Afghanis.

I must digress. My family's neighborhood was pure white as was my high school until a black student enrolled in my final semester in 1960. My father was a young boy when his family moved from Georgia to Ohio. He brought along what he had been taught about blacks. The black's enrollment in my school traveled quickly through our neighborhood causing my father could give me this never-to-be-forgotten advice: "If he gives you trouble, kick him in the shins. They hate that.” I was shocked and mentally ran his advice through a shredder.

But he was a man who accepted change. Years later, my eldest sister and her husband adopted two mixed race children. In one of our family's fondest photos, my father sits in his favorite chair smiling and holding close his five-year-old adopted granddaughter on his lap.

At the bank, every night each of us would start with a printout and a bundle of the checks listed on that printout. Some checks would not be listed causing the printout and the bundle to not balance. The veterans gave me precise directions about the best way to bring them to balance. I followed the directions exactly because once I finished all my printouts I could leave. But I never chose to leave before the others. No one did. We all helped each other balance so we could all leave at the same time. It was that kind of workplace.

I realized later that my three jobs taught me the people give two kinds of directions. The newspaper job taught me about what I'll call “results” directions. As in, make sure each customer gets a newspaper on time. It gave me no directions about how to accomplish that result. It let me decide who got the first paper and what route I took.The second I'll call “best way” directions which describe step-by step how you get to the destination. These specific sets of directions tell you how to balance the manifest and to balance your printout. Also, I learned, a set explains how to obtain your first passport.

I cannot explain why I took a very temporary fourth job for two weekends during the holiday season unpacking products at a large department store. I must have been numb or dumb.

About that time my savings account hit four figures. All was well in my tiny world because I was on schedule for a June departure date 

Dan

. 

MY STORY #6 

The Weyerhauser Steamship Company probably hired me because I was good with numbers. It didn't hire me for my looks. I wore a pair of old black shoes crudely polished, a wrinkled pair of trousers without a belt, new white dress shirt with a new clip-on tie, and a sport coat borrowed from John's cousin to the interview. I got the job because I could operate an adding machine and reminded the interviewer of his grandson. I remember these details because I really needed the job.

I thought it was a cool job because it worked well with my newspaper route and paid $300 monthly. I got home, got clean, and caught the streetcar to the downtown San Francisco office building where I sat at my desk from 8:30 to 5:00 checking ships’ manifests. Believe me, I followed my manager’s directions without screwing up. I figured I could save about one half of each month's pay, but I daily read the classified because I needed more money. 

My third job at Crocker Citizens Bank fit my needs exactly. I worked from  6:00 pm to midnight or whenever we finished Monday through Friday. I don't remember the pay, but it exceeded expectations because of the hours. 

I took the streetcar home about midnight, slept till the 5:00 am alarm, delivered the papers, got to Weyerhauser by 8;30 am, and went to the bank at 6:00 pm. Could I do that now? No way. But back then I thought I was like a rock.

At the bank I learned about my first computers which were giant machines that spit out 2-inch-thick stacks of printouts containing lists of checks the bank cashed that day. And most importantly, I spent time with five of the most delightful coworkers ever -  Maria and another woman who were housewives and moms; Joe, about whom I cannot remember much; Stefan, a student at the University of San Francisco, and Lenny. Lenny, who was black, was the first nonwhite person that I spent any time with. He ran the computer room

Nightly as the newest hire, I trekked to the computer room multiple times to carry the printouts from the computer to my coworkers. If the computer had not finished printing Lenny and I would talk.I believe that we came to understand that we meant no harm to each other. We even managed the light trash talk favored by men playing a Sunday morning basketball game. I credit my experience with Lenny as crucial to my ability during my trip, without fear or concern, to be the only white person standing on a train full of Japanese, or sitting in a room full of Indians, or walking down a street full of Afghanis.

I must digress. My family's neighborhood was pure white as was my high school until a black student enrolled in my final semester in 1960. My father was a young boy when his family moved from Georgia to Ohio. He brought along what he had been taught about blacks. The black's enrollment in my school traveled quickly through our neighborhood causing my father could give me this never-to-be-forgotten advice: "If he gives you trouble, kick him in the shins. They hate that.” I was shocked and mentally ran his advice through a shredder.

But he was a man who accepted change. Years later, my eldest sister and her husband adopted two mixed race children. In one of our family's fondest photos, my father sits in his favorite chair smiling and holding close his five-year-old adopted granddaughter on his lap.

At the bank, every night each of us would start with a printout and a bundle of the checks listed on that printout. Some checks would not be listed causing the printout and the bundle to not balance. The veterans gave me precise directions about the best way to bring them to balance. I followed the directions exactly because once I finished all my printouts I could leave. But I never chose to leave before the others. No one did. We all helped each other balance so we could all leave at the same time. It was that kind of workplace.

I realized later that my three jobs taught me the people give two kinds of directions. The newspaper job taught me about what I'll call “results” directions. As in, make sure each customer gets a newspaper on time. It gave me no directions about how to accomplish that result. It let me decide who got the first paper and what route I took.The second I'll call “best way” directions which describe step-by step how you get to the destination. These specific sets of directions tell you how to balance the manifest and to balance your printout. Also, I learned, a set explains how to obtain your first passport.

I cannot explain why I took a very temporary fourth job for two weekends during the holiday season unpacking products at a large department store. I must have been numb or dumb.

About that time my savings account hit four figures. All was well in my tiny world because I was on schedule for a June departure date .

My Story #7

I accepted the obvious. These three jobs absorbed my days, weeks, and months until May 1964. I plunged ahead with the resilience and rashness of youth. No doubt it was hard. No doubt  I had days when I did not want to get up. But I couldn't quit on my own plan. Months ago, I had a vision that I could go to San Francisco, work to save money to take a boat to Japan the next June, and hitchhike around the world. Now I was doing exactly that and found positives in each of my jobs.

During delivery of the San Francisco Chronicle, the “Chron”, I almost always challenged myself to cut time by finding a new shortcut. I enjoyed beginning my day by hustling through Russian Hill’s quiet streets to improve the way that my 100 or so customers began their day. Occasionally, I might have paused beside one of my customer’s fantastic flower beds, and thought, “This isn't so bad.” I have always preferred a job like this where I felt like while I had a boss, I did not have a supervisor. 

At Weyerhauser, my supervisor always was in close contact with me. This job paid the most, but I quit it first in early May, mostly because I needed daytime hours to prepare for the trip. I confess I enjoyed the process of getting to that job. Exiting the tram onto the sidewalk pooled with the energy of other office workers, entering my building, and greeting the elevator operator made me feel like a San Franciscan rather than a tourist. Also, most of Weyerhauser’s ships served Japan, and I took some pleasure visualizing that trip when I reviewed their manifests.

On my walk from Weyerhauser to Crocker Citizens Bank, I often stopped at a small grocery for a sub sandwich for dinner. I still picture the homemade bun of genuine San Francisco sourdough. It was about the length of a standard hotdog bun but wider and thicker with a crusty top dusted very lightly with flour. I usually got salami and Swiss with the grocer’s own sauce.

I could throttle back a bit when I got to the bank. I think it was a second job for all of us and that we all had because we needed it. While we waited for the printouts, I heard a few reasons why my co-workers worked at the bank such as  kids, illnesses, classes, and new cars or houses. Somewhat hesitantly, I revealed my travel plan. Most offered encouragement tinged with wistfulness.  

I doubt whether I could have succeeded with my 3-job life in another city. The joy of San Francisco allowed me to be positive rather than negative, optimistic rather than pessimistic, and resolute rather than halfhearted. 

San Francisco at that time was one of the world's great cities. Herb Caen, the beloved Pulitzer Prize winning columnist of the Chron epitomized the spirit of San Francisco - colorful, proud, worldly, and welcoming. Caen nicknamed his City “Baghdad by the Bay” because of its multicultural population including descendants from the 1849 Gold Rush that increased to population from 459 persons in 1847 to 25,000 people in 1849, the Chinese who came to work on construction of the trans-continental railway; the African Americans who came to work in the WWII shipyards, and the men and women who fought in the Pacific and stayed after they were discharged in San Francisco.

The 1905 earthquake destroyed three-quarters of the City. The citizens famously rebuilt with speed, style, and important public works, parks, and places. Ten years later, San Francisco showcased itself by hosting the Panama-Pacific International Exposition. During the Great Depression, no bank in San Francisco failed and the City built two great bridges, the Golden Gate Bridge completed in 1937 and the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge finished in 1936. 

This palpable positive spirit was the power of the place. 

I embraced this spirit as I worked these three jobs. When I could, I enjoyed the varied cuisine and entertainment that I could afford, as well as the cable cars, hilly walks, the weather, fog and all, and the City's parks and places.

Tony Bennett released “I Left My Heart in San Francisco” in 1962. He got it right.

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=Ysw4svDmcxc&list=RDAMVMYsw4svDmcxc

Dan

EPISODE #8 

I closed out 1963 with shorter days, colder temps, and stiffer winds.

Work, sleep, work, eat, work. 

I spent Christmas Day away from my family for the first time. John had flown home. I slid onto a stool at the long bar in a classic  Irish tavern in downtown San Francisco alone among many. I ate a  midday meal of a beer and a sandwich and, feeling the blues, one more beer before I made the long walk home. At the first signs of spring, I knew I needed time to reconnect with the world.

I had to shed a job like a grizzly sheds its winter coat. I now believe I quit the paper first because it paid the least. And I wanted my weekends. I was still working 14-hour days, five days a week.

I felt the need to be a part of the Civil Rights Movement prevalent throughout the country. In San Francisco protesters picketed the new car dealers in Auto Row along Van Ness Avenue and well-known hotels demanding equal employment for African Americans. John and I joined the Saturday morning picket line at the Cadillac dealer. No conflict. No harassment. No blocking of entrances or sitting in. Just peacefully carrying a sign and slowly walking an imaginary rectangular track in the parking lot. It felt righteous. 

One morning, a movement leader announced that all car dealers had signed an agreement to open their jobs to African Americans. The little victory that mandated a celebratory party that night. A young black woman gave me her hand at the beginning of a song. We danced one dance, touching hands only and smiling but not speaking. Maybe it is not a big deal now. But back then, for this white boy, it was huge. It was like the last stitch in the seam creating racial equality in my mind. 

On another weekend, John and I drove south to the Monterey Jazz Festival. For some reason, we took a two-lane inland highway through agricultural country rather than the famous coastal highway. We were admiring the miles of surrounding green artichoke fields when a hornet's nest of Harleys came upon us. The noise was something else. John slowed to let them by, and I read Hells Angels on the jackets. They treated us like we didn’t exist.  A memorable California moment. I believe that the Festival was my first outdoor music concert. Good music. Cheap wine. Interesting people. We slept in our sleeping bags next to the car. Overall, a fine California day

I had another California traffic experience. My mother told me that, when I was very young, I had an allergic reaction to penicillin, and she pleaded with me to get it checked before I left. I found a free clinical study at the University of California Hospital in Berkeley that required four bi-weekly trips across the Bay Bridge from San Francisco. The doctor tatted a one-inch square of little injections into my arm. On the next visit, he would record my reactions and tat me again. For the last visit, the car was unavailable, and I borrowed a motorcycle from Stefan my coworker at the bank. I knew I could handle the bike because I had a Norton 750 during my last year at Boulder.

But I had not experienced anything close to the ride across the Bay Bridge at rush hour. I was like an acorn riding white water through a narrow canyon bordered by steep cliffs. I was sharing the multiple lanes with tailgating vehicles as large as 18-wheelers going as fast as traffic allowed. I kept my speed up and adjusted to the quirky winds produced by the trucks. 

The good news is that the doctor pronounced me allergy-free.

The bad news is that two weeks later, a drunk driver ran a red light and crushed Stefan and that very bike. He was pronounced dead.

His death wrinkled me up some. I had no real experience with death. He was a good man and one of the few I tried to make time to hang out with.  He left behind a two-year-old daughter and a devastated wife who after the funeral asked some of us to accompany them to the beach. I tried but could not find words that brought her comfort.

Not too many weeks later, John and I were at home early on a Saturday evening when a very unusual event occurred. Not only was the telephone for me, but it was also a telephone call from a woman named Kay. She reminded me that we had dated a couple times in high school five or so years ago. When she added that she was living nearby and invited me over for wine, right now, I began to believe in magic. John smiled wolfishly when he slid the car keys. He knew that I had not made time for a woman since we arrived in San Francisco.

I realized my high school fantasy in her tiny apartment. She set the stage with incense, a bottle of wine, and a flowery, flowy long dress. The next day we went to the beach and learned that our futures ran along different tracks I was going overseas. She was a counterculture queen courting her future disciples. I never saw her again. I heard that drugs had extinguished her light. I hope that was false news.

in April, I gave notice to the bank, signaling that the end was near. John and I kept our agreement to treat  ourselves to the cioppino at the best-smelling Italian restaurant in North Beach before we left on our trip. I brought along my passport and brochures for passenger ships to Japan. John surprised me by saying that he couldn't go by boat because the water scared him. Instead, he had bought an around-the-world airline ticket.  The next week I booked my steerage-class space in the American President Lines President Wilson to Hawaii, Yokohama, Japan, and Hong Kong. 

   
October 26, 2023Should an Olde Goat Buy a Fractional Share of a Painting from Masterworks?Probably Not.At $20 per share, a 1/50,000 share of a $1 Million Picasso or Warhol may be a great gag gift for your old goat friend who has everything. But if you want a serious investment, remember the adage “Buyer Beware” before you invest in a fractional share of a painting offered by Masterworks which has sold fractional shares of paintings since 2017.When I saw the Masterworks’ ad online seeking investors last week, I immediately recalled a book I read last month about the discredited French company Aristophil. For many years Aristophil founder Gerard Lheritier sold fractional shares of valuable manuscripts by famous people such as DeGaulle, JFK, and the Marquis de Sade. It did not work out well for the investors/. More on that later.Masterworks works this way, taken verbatim from its website:We select the artistsOur research team uses our proprietary data to determine which artist markets have the most momentum.2
We purchase the artOur acquisitions team locates what we believe is a good piece, at a fair price, and we purchase the work.3
We securitize the artworkWe file an offering circular with the Securities and Exchange Commission allowing anyone to invest.4.1 We hold the artwork 3‑10 yrsWait until we sell the painting to receive your pro rata proceeds, after our fees.4.2 Sell your shares on the trading market*You have the option to seek to sell your shares on our trading market.* We cannot assure you that the Trading Market will provide enough liquidity, a reliable or effective means of monetizing your investment or valuing your shares4.3 Our private sales team sells the paintingOperating out of a separate gallery space, our private sales team interfaces with the top collectors in the art market to sell works directly to them In addition, the website states that buyers pay:· 1.5% annual management fee· 20% share of any profit to Masterwork· “A one-time expense allocation for artworks sourcing, securitization, and platform costs.”Here are excerpts from the Masterworks October 2023 Important  Disclosure. I have highlighted important parts. From Masterworks’ “Important Disclosure”
9. Appraisals & Net Asset Value (NAV)GeneralMasterworks internally appraises artworks that are held by entities administered by Masterworks Administrative Services on an ongoing basis, and obtains an independent review of appraisals by a third-party appraiser on an annual basis. The objective of an appraisal is to determine the Fair Market Value (“FMV”) of the subject artwork, which is equal to the price property would sell for on the open market between a willing buyer and a willing seller, with neither being required to act, and both having reasonable knowledge of the relevant facts, consistent with the standards set forth in IRS Publication 561. FMV includes expected buyer’s premium and estimated transaction commissions.FMV is measured principally by the Sales Comparison Approach, a relative value comparison basis on sales transactions involving similar objects (i.e. comparable sales). Appraisals are prepared in accordance with the 2020-2021 Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (“USPAP”) developed by the Appraisal Standards Board of the Appraisal Foundation, although it is noted that there are potential conflicts of interest given that some or all individual members of the appraisal committee are employees of Masterworks and Masterworks retains an ownership interest in the subject artworks as well as ownership of the Masterworks Platform.The secondary trading price of any securities which may represent an investment in the subject artwork are not considered in conducting the appraisal.Masterworks appraisals are jointly conducted by an appraisal committee consisting of three members.TimingReview of the Fair Value of all artwork for which title is held in any Masterworks investment entity are performed, at a minimum, on a quarterly basis, except as described below. If this review reveals an event, including a comparable sale, which materially alters the current FMV of the subject artwork, an appraisal report will be issued promptly following the close of a fiscal quarter and reflect FMV as of the last day of the calendar quarter then ended, excluding artworks which were the subject of a recent offering. Select artworks may be appraised or previously issued appraisals may be revised more frequently than quarterly at the discretion of the appraisal committee.Defining and Identifying Comparable ArtworkThe Appraisal Committee will determine the parameters included in the comparable set of artwork to be evaluated. Comparable objects are selected based on similar characteristics to the subject work, which may include, but are not limited to: artist, size, date of creation, medium, series, imagery, execution, style or technique, colors, condition, provenance and/or exhibition history, and prior sale history (if any). Comparable characteristics for each artwork are determined on a case-by-case basis based on the appraiser’s knowledge of the respective artist’s market.Important Limitations on Usefulness of AppraisalsThe FMVs determined by Masterworks’ appraisals are only valid as of the effective date of such appraisals and do not reflect any sales of objects conducted after the effective date. The art market (and individual artist markets) typically do not move in a linear fashion and a single unexpected auction result (positive or negative) can have a significant impact on values.Artwork very commonly sells for amounts considerably above or below its appraised or estimated value or fails to sell altogether. The future realizable value of a fine artwork may differ widely from its estimated or appraised value for a variety of reasons, many of which are unpredictable and impossible to discern. Valuation is heavily reliant on an analysis of sales history of similar artwork. Experts often differ on which historical sales are comparable and the degree of comparability.Potential Conflicts of Interest in Performing AppraisalsThe appraisal committee is composed of employees of Masterworks, which receives compensation for the administration and profitable sale of the artwork. Masterworks business in general is influenced by the FMV of artwork it manages. The compensation of members of the appraisal committee is not directly contingent upon the performance of any appraisal, including reporting of a predetermined value or direction in value that favors the cause of Masterworks, the appraised fair market value, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of a subsequent event directly related to the intended use of any appraisal. Although Masterworks may have conflicts of interest, it has taken steps it deems reasonable to ensure that the appraisal committee can act independently of Masterworks and free from bias. Masterworks does not earn fees tied directly to appraised values.Masterworks is active in buying, and selling in the art market. If there is a sale of a work that Masterworks has purchased at public auction that qualifies as comparable to the target object, the comparable sale may be included in the comparable data set at the discretion of the lead appraiserYou are cautioned against placing undue reliance on any given appraised value and there is no assurance that an independent appraisal would produce a different appraised value.
10. Risk of InvestingInvesting involves a number of significant risks and uncertainties. Please also review the "Risk Factors" section of our latest SEC filings prior to investing. In addition, you should consult your own counsel, accountant and other advisors as to legal, tax, business, financial, and related aspects of an investment in a Masterworks issuer. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and past historical appreciation rates of artwork may not be indicative of future appreciation rates. An investor can lose money. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.Set forth below is a summary of certain risks that should be considered, but this summary is not a substitute for the more extensive and specific language included in the offering circular or Memorandum for any particular Masterworks issuer.Masterworks Issuers are totally reliant on Masterworks. Masterworks issuers do not expect to generate revenue, so issuers are totally reliant on Masterworks to administer their operations and cover ongoing operating expenses. Investors will only recognize a return on their investment if the painting is sold or they are able to sell their shares.Each Issuer is Undiversified. Investing in any given Masterworks issuer is risky since 100% of such investment is concentrated in a single artwork and, with respect to issuers offering investment in a collection of artwork, such collection may provide limited exposure to a small subset of artists and artwork.Your Ability to Trade Shares is Uncertain. There is no active public market for Masterworks issuer shares and an active trading market may not ever develop or, even if developed, may not be available to all shareholders, may not be sustained or may cease to exist. Although we facilitate secondary purchases and sales of Class A shares of certain Masterworks issuers on an alternative trading system operating by Templum Markets LLC (the “Templum ATS”), certain investors are not eligible to participate on the Templum ATS, including certain non-U.S. citizens, and it may not provide an effective means to sell your shares or receive a price for your shares that is reflective of the fair value of the Class A shares or the Artwork. You should consider the resale market for Masterworks shares to be severely limited, as you may be unable to resell your shares without significant expense, or at all.Artwork may be Sold at a Loss. A painting can decline in value and investors in Masterworks shares may lose all or a significant portion of their investment. Even if the artwork appreciates in value, the rate of appreciation may be insufficient to cover costs and expenses.Illiquidity. Masterworks issuers intend to hold paintings for many years and the creation of a trading market for the shares that will generate sufficient volume to facilitate price discovery is uncertain. Art is a highly illiquid asset and we cannot guarantee that there will be a buyer at any reasonable price or within any given time frame. Investors shoul be prepared to hold their investment for an indefinite period of time, as there can be no assurance that the shares or the artwork can be sold.Costs Will Diminish Returns. Fixed expense allocations, administrative services fees paid to Masterworks and Masterworks profit sharing, along with third party costs to sell the painting, if any, will reduce overall returns on invested capital.Investing in Art is subject to Numerous Risks. These risks include, without limitation, physical damage, market risks, economic risks and fraud.Trends. Temporary consumer popularity or trends among collectors may lead to short-term or temporary price increases, followed by decreases in value. Trends are difficult to predict and may adversely impact our ability to sell an artwork.Claims. Buying and selling artwork can involve potential claims regarding title, provenance and or authenticity of the artwork. Costs associated with litigation and or settlement are the responsibility of each Masterworks issuer.Insurance Coverage May be Insufficient. Insurance coverage may expressly exclude damage caused by war, certain title claims, losses caused by chemical or biological contamination and certain other potential loss scenarios. In addition, coverage limits may be below fair value.Masterworks has Potential Conflicts of Interest. Masterworks earns fees and incurs costs for administering Masterworks issuers. Masterworks performs internal valuations of artwork held by Masterworks issuers as opposed to obtaining valuations from disinterested third parties. Masterworks interests and the interests of its Board of Managers and officers may not always be aligned with your interests.Liquidation Timing is Uncertain. There can be no assurance as to the timing of a liquidating distribution or that a Masterworks issuer will pay a liquidating distribution at all.Here are suggestions from The Motley Fool, a reputable investment advisor firm.
“Who should (and shouldn't) invest in fine art?Here are a few more things to consider before you decide to commit your money to investing in artwork.Investing in fine art may be a good fit for you if:

• You have a passion and      appreciation for art and are willing to do your research.
• You have an established portfolio      of other investments and are looking to diversify your assets.
• You have a high risk tolerance.
• You're willing to own a piece of      art indefinitely.
• You can afford the maintenance      and insurance for the pieces you acquire.

Avoid art as an investment if:

• You're expecting returns that      outpace the stock      market.
• You have no interest in      displaying the works that you buy.
• You want to be able to liquidate      your holdings quickly and easily.

Investing in art isn't for everyone. It carries a lot of risk, and investors shouldn't expect huge returns, even from a diversified collection of works.”The purchase of a fractional share works best when you purchase a share of time to use something like a “time share” of a condo at the beach, or a boat. You can’t use a fractional share of a painting. You’ll probably never see the original which presumably is safe in storage. Even if you invest $10,000, you still get only a piece of paper confirming your investment and bragging rights, such as they might be.A New York Times article about Arostophil’s downfall includes the reactions of investors who lost money among other facts about what was likened to a Ponzi scheme. For many years Aristophil founder Gerard Lheritier sold fractional shares of manuscripts by famous people to about 18,000 people, including many retirees, by promising them   spectacular returns upon resale. In 2014, French authorities, based on complaints by purchasers, ordered the company to be closed and its 136,000 manuscript-inventory to be sold at public auction. The proceeds of the first two auctions brought purchasers about 10% of their investments. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/business/aristophil-lheritier-rare-books.htmlFor a broader look at the European antique manuscript market, I suggest reading Joel Warner’s THE CURSE OF THE MARQUIS DE SADE” whose infamous manuscript “120 Days of Sodom” belonged to Aristophil.I urge old goats to be very careful about investing in Masterworks. Be sure to evaluate your financial situation and thoroughly read and consider all information about the company before you invest.Dan Bell 

Turn in Your Keys, Mr. President

I firmly believe that Oldegoats are an ignored segment of society. In part, it may be our own fault. We must speak out more frequently about public matters that concern us, particularly when it concerns a peer. This, and not partisan politics, is why I wrote this letter.

Hey Joe

As a fellow octogenarian, I have felt the pain of your age-stiffened muscles, your embarrassment at failing to temporarily remember a name erased from your age-shrouded memory, and your fear after unintentionally saying something concocted by your age-bedeviled brain.

To borrow a phrase from you, here's the deal, Joe. We both know that no cure exists for these conditions,  that they will grow inevitably as you age, and that we octogenarians will continue to lose control over mind and body. If we believe otherwise, we have a delusion, like the mythical Fountain of Youth or a delusion of grandeur. 

You must know that scores of historians will be analyzing and rating your performance as President. Going forward, you face three determinative scenarios First, give up the keys immediately by announcing that you will not run, be praised by historians, and thanked by most Americans. If you require support, listen to LBJ’s March 31. 1968.speech announcing that he would not run for a second term.  Second, run and lose and be scorned by historians and cursed by many Americans.  Third, run and win. Ironically, this may be the worst-case scenario. Certainly, it is the riskiest for you and the country. All agree that the current treacherous domestic and international seas require precise navigation. Bluntly, your deteriorating mental and physical conditions likely will cause you to be incapable of successfully guiding this country. The historians will scald you, and I can't imagine how Americans will demonstrate their despair. If you doubt that icould happen, read about the pathos and chaos of Wilson’s last two years in officeafter he suffered a stroke  during his second term.

I have heard that you have excellent handlers who can assist you with decision making. However, this runs contrary to the style of leadership used successfully on ships for millennia and sanctified as presidential by this time-honored statement “The President is the captain of the Ship of State “. The ship's captain has the duty, power, and authority to make all critical decisions. The crew (or group of handlers) carries out his orders. Americans want a mature leader, not a committee, as President.

As an octogenarian, I have had two give-up-my-keys experiences. With due respect, I do not infer that they are anywhere near as important as yours, Mr. President One occurred shortly after I began my practice. I was befriended by an older lawyer who was a name partner in a respected Madison law firm. I learned that he had been a good trial lawyer but was now relegated to small claims court and family court commissioner hearings. Over time I noticed that he often forgot a necessity such as a pen or legal pad. I gave him what he needed but felt a bit bad for his clients because they weren't getting the representation that they needed. One 

time he came to a hearing without his client’s file or even his client’s name. I didn't see him again and later learned that his partners had had taken his keys by forcing him into retirement. 

The second happened about 35 years later when I realized that it was time to turn in my keys to my successful career as a trial lawyer. It happened this way. I was waiting in the courtroom to speak to the judge about an uncontested matter. As I listened to two talented young lawyers perform on behalf of their clients, I realized that they were as quick as I used to be. In other words, I realized that I had lost the proverbial step that separates the adequate from the very good. I realized that I no longer could give my clients the high-quality representation that they deserved in court.

So, Joe, here's the deal. You need to admit that you have lost a step and no are no longer capable of giving Americans the high- quality performance that they need and expect from their President. 

If only for your own legacy, you need to follow the multitude of American men and women who every year , for different reasons, turn in their keys. 

Let’s do this thing, Mr. President. Turn in your keys.

Respectfully,

Dan Bell

Founder, oldegoats.com

dan@oldegoats.com

I am writing this to help you stay relevant.

Better to be away from the crowd, than to be shorn by generative AI.

When I wrote my last AI blog, I thought that a middle ground existed between good medical research AI and bad, scammy AI.

I was wrong. I did not know that a generative AI tsunami targeting our brains had flooded the middle ground this year. I am not an AI expert, but I am obligated to warn you about generative AI. I am concerned that its users may take advantage of you and that, in general, its use may degrade your lives. I encourage you to read the experts’ pro and con opinions on the Pew Research site found below.

What is “generative AI”?

Generative AI is traditional AI on steroids. It allows a company to convert sound, including your voice, and images, including your face, into text, images, and videos that help it sell you its product.  

Here is the definition from Investopedia.

“Generative AI is a type of artificial intelligence that can produce content such as audio, text, code, video, images, and other data. Whereas traditional AI algorithms may be used to identify patterns within a training data set and make predictions, generative AI uses machine learning algorithms to create outputs based on a training data set. 

Generative AI can produce outputs in the same medium in which it is prompted (e.g., text-to-text) or in a different medium from the given prompt (e.g., text-to-image or image-to-video). Popular examples of generative AI include ChatGPT, Bard, DALL-E, Midjourney, and DeepMind.”

Do boundaries exist for “generative AI”?

Not yet. No laws have been passed. And it appears that the AI developers can not define the boundaries.

Who supports “generative AI”?

Some researchers and developers

Companies that manufacture products, like ChatGPT, that allow consumers to use generative AI.

Online advertising companies. According to July’s CNBC report “How the Generative AI Boom Could Forever Change Online Advertising”,. it represents the next step in digital advertising. And the richest and most powerful online advertisers agree.

“Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, the leaders in online advertising, are all betting generative AI will eventually be core to their businesses. They’ve each recently debuted products or announced plans to develop various tools to help companies more easily create messages, images and even videos for their respective platforms.” 

The smaller advertisers will follow the big boys.

Old Goats know that the only purpose of advertising is to sell you as much as you will buy. Beware of the “various tools” and remember that you are in charge of your life.

Is anyone concerned about “Generative AI”?

Yes, In June, the well-regarded Pew Research Center reported the opinions of experts in “As AI spreads Experts Predict Best and Worst Changes in Digital Life by 2035.”

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/06/21/as-ai-spreads-experts-predict-the-best-and-worst-changes-in-digital-life-by-2035/

“Some 79% of the canvassed experts said they are more concerned than excited about coming technological change or equally concerned and excited.”

Here are some of their concerns:

· That digital systems will continue to be driven by profit incentives in economics and power incentives in politics. 

· These experts fear new threats to rights will arise as privacy becomes harder, if not impossible, to maintain. They cite surveillance advances, sophisticated bots embedded in civic spaces, the spread of deepfakes and disinformation, advanced facial recognition systems, and widening social and digital divides as looming threats. They foresee crimes and harassment spreading more widely, and the rise of new challenges to humans’ agency and security. A topmost concern is the expectation that increasingly sophisticated AI is likely to lead to the loss of jobs, resulting in a rise in poverty and the diminishment of human dignity.

· They fear that the best of knowledge will be lost or neglected in a sea of mis- and disinformation, that the institutions previously dedicated to informing the public will be further decimated, that basic facts will be drowned out in a sea of entertaining distractions, bald-faced lies and targeted manipulation. They worry that people’s cognitive skills will decline. In addition, they argued that “reality itself is under siege” as emerging digital tools convincingly create deceptive or alternate realities. They worry that a class of “doubters” will hold back progress.

· A share of these experts said humanity’s embrace of digital systems has already spurred high levels of anxiety and depression and predicted things could worsen as technology embeds itself further in people’s lives and social arrangements.

· Two overarching concerns: a trend toward autonomous weapons and cyberwarfare, and the prospect of runaway digital systems. They also said things could worsen as the pace of tech change accelerates. They expect that people’s distrust in each other may grow and their faith in institutions may deteriorate. 

A  final thought. Regular use of our brain stalls memory loss and related diseases such as Alzheimer’s.  To the extent we let Generative AI take over our brains do we hasten the arrival of these two conditions which devastate our later life?  

This blog covers the Bad.

HOW CAN AI HARM ME?

The scammers. These seriously twisted individuals who steal billions per year from Olde Goats. They deserve a special circle in Dante’s Inferno.

The Michigan Attorney General stated that “AI technology allows scammers to easily create and personalize scams to make them more convincing. It uses personal information pulled from social media profiles and other online sources to tailor the scam to you.” It recommended protecting yourself from these reptilian creatures by:

· Don’t trust the voice.

· Be skeptical when asked for money in any form.

· Hang up

· Call the person using a number you know to be theirs. 

In addition, security experts recommend establishing  secret word with loved ones to be used in an emergency and to reveal a scam.

Learn to recognize the ingredients of a scam.

• Pressure to act immediately.
• Use of scare tactics or enticing      offers.
• An offer too good to be true.
• Demand for money, typically in an      unusual form, either by wire transfer, gift card, pay app, or crypto.
• Requests for sensitive or      personal information.

Here are some frequent scams.

The Deepfake

The scammer creates a fake relative or close friend by using a clip from her voice taken from social media or a website, a copy of her face, and her personal information from various online sites. 

You would swear that she was real. Your phone rings. The caller’s ID matches her number. She looks and sounds like your granddaughter. You would swear it was her She tells a tragic story of misidentification by the police, jail, and her need for $5000 right away for bail and an attorney. She instructs you where to send the money and tells you she’ll repay it promptly. She has always been a good girl. You agree.

After an hour of tears and worry, you call her. “Oh, gramps,” she says. “I never called you. You’ve been scammed. You need to get your money back.”

Of course, that is not easy. The Michigan AG suggests that you act  immediately to minimize any damage. If you paid by:

• Credit or debit card - contact      the company or bank that issued the card and report the fraudulent charge.
• Bank transfer - inform your bank      of an unauthorized debit or withdrawal.
• Gift card - contact the company      that issued the gift card and report fraud. Typically, these transactions      are not traceable or reversible.
• Payment app - report the      transaction to the company behind the app. These apps require you to link      it with a credit or debit card. Report the transaction to the fraud      department for that card. Pay apps are not regulated and many do not offer      transfer protections. You may be forced to rely on the goodwill of the      recipient to return the funds.
• Cryptocurrency - contact the      company you used to send the money. These transactions typically are not      reversible, and the return of funds falls on the person who received them      to return them.
• Wire transfer - contact the wire      transfer company to see about canceling the money transfer.
  • MoneyGram at       800-926-9400
  • Western Union at       800-448-1492

You can also file a report with your local law enforcement agency and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) at 877-382-4357.

Here are some other frequent scams that target Olde Goats.

The Romance Scam

Lonely Olde Goats frequent online dating sites. You describe the person you would like to meet. The scammer crafts the voice and image of your ideal date. After a few successful video dates to build a relationship, this ideal date will ask for money and will continue to ask for as long as you will give. As soon as you stop giving, she will be gone.

The Ransom Attack 

This is like The Deepfake only a third person makes that call demanding money to save the loved person who is in trouble. The scammers may create the relative’s fake voice and image to convince you that they hold your loved one. If the voice and image are accurate, most people will send the money.

IRS Collection Letters

Scammers have used phony IRS letters demanding payment for years. Often you could identify phony letters by typos and grammatical mistakes. Now AI creates perfect letters, and scammers often follow up with phone calls demanding payment. Rather than paying, demand an in-person meeting and have a family member with you at the meeting.

The AARP warns to watch for these additional AI scams.

· The too-good-to-be-true offer from a foreign country. These scammers can use the AI power of Chatbox-like programs to write emails in perfect English, making their promises of great riches more convincing.

· The powerful multi-tool approach. The scammer combines an AI-generated email request with a copied voice and a Zoom picture to convince you that the call for help is real.

· The doomsday approach. The scammer gives the AI program all your information and instructs the computer to create the foolproof scam. 

Eyal Benishti, CEO of Ironscales, a company that protects companies from online scams, raised this possibility during a recent interview with AARP. 

With advanced AI, a criminal will also be able to give the software tasks,” he says, such as “your task is to convince Christina to wire money or give a credit-card number… Now go and figure out, based on her reply, how to do it.”

For safety we may return to face-to-face transactions.

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This blog covers the Good

Artificial Intelligence(AI) refers to a computer program that feeds an enormous amount of data into a computer and directs the computer to answer a specific question and/or solve a particular question. 

Arend Hintze, an assistant professor of integrative biology and computer science and engineering at Michigan State University, explained that AI can be categorized into four types, beginning with the task-specific intelligent systems in wide use today and progressing to sentient systems, which do not yet exist. The categories are as follows.

• Type 1: Reactive machines. These AI systems have no memory and are task-specific. An example is Deep Blue, the IBM chess program that beat Garry Kasparov in the 1990s. Deep Blue can identify pieces on a chessboard and make predictions, but because it has no memory, it cannot use past experiences to inform future ones.
• Type 2: Limited memory. These AI systems have memory, so they can use past experiences to inform future decisions. Some of the decision-making functions in self-driving cars are designed this way.
• Type 3: Theory of mind. Theory of mind is a psychology term. When applied to AI, it means the system would have the social intelligence to understand emotions. This type of AI will be able to infer human intentions and predict behavior, a necessary skill for AI systems to become integral members of human teams.
• Type 4: Self-awareness. In this category, AI systems have a sense of self, which gives them consciousness. Machines with self-awareness understand their own current state. This type of AI does not yet exist.

TechTarget, a large publisher of enterprise tech content, published "A guide to Articial Intellignece Newsletter" which includes a library of information about AI including these definitions of its four stages. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/definition/AI-Artificial-Intelligence?Offer=abt_pubpro_AI-Insider

 It is not certain whether it will reach development stages three and four. But note the ominous title the Chart gives to the fourth stage –“Self-aware”, meaning the AI can “bypass our intelligence.”

Even at stage two, AI is flourishing  like mushrooms in the spring. The growth occurs in good areas, like medicine and education, and bad areas, like scamming and politics.

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO OLDE GOATS?

Whether you like it or not, AI will affect your life. It may develop a drug that cures a life-threatening condition and extends your life. But you need to be wary of AI’s dark side. Slimy scammers or political operatives may intentionally use darkfakes to distort the facts to victimize you. 

Olde goats who have jobs will be wary of AI programs that allow businesses to save money by streamlining  procedures. Maybe that helps business, but maybe it harms society if AI eliminates more jobs than it creates.

IS AI GOOD FOR ME?

Yes. It could save or lengthen your life.

AI might be the most effective working to solve research problems in the medical and educational fields. I will give you an extremely simplified version of how AI manipulates data super-fast to help Olde Goats. Scientists searching for drugs to help Alzheimer’s victims will give the AI computer program all their information on the disease and on the compounds that might be part of a drug effective against Alzheimer’s. The AI program identifies the potentially helpful compounds much, much, much faster than the researchers would have identified them without AI. 

For example, very recently, according to the Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News, researchers may have saved years by using an AI-guided method to identify three drugs from 2,352 compounds which could decrease anti-aging diseases such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and Alzheimer’s.

Separately, the medical journal Aging described a new 3-step suite of AI programs designed to speed up the process to put tested drugs for Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, cirrhosis, and others on the shelves. Within minutes the program’s first step identifies the causal molecular targets to eliminate; within a week the second step designs novel replacement molecules, and the third step designs and predicts the clinical trials of the drugs.

AI CAN BE  AGEIST

However, according to the World Health Organization(WHO), AI technologies will not be equally beneficial unless treatment developers eliminate all forms of ageism from their development, use, and evaluation. In its policy brief, WHO states that the following changes are necessary:

· Participatory design of AI technologies by and with older people

· Age-diverse data science teams

· Age-inclusive data collection

· Investments in digital infrastructure and digital literacy for older people and their health-care providers and caregivers

· Rights of older people to consent and contest

· Governance frameworks and regulations to empower and work with older people

· Increased research to understand new uses of AI and how to avoid bias

· Robust ethics processes in the development and application of AI.

Olde goats must recognize and support AI’s use in medical research.

Ho. Hum. That best describes the report released last week “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation: The U.S. Surgeon General’s Advisory on the Healing Effects of Social Connection and Community.”  I found this 82-page report with 325 footnotes to be a stale compilation of the opinions of others supporting general call for help from government agencies and non-profits that I presume already provide help.

This is No Report for Old Men

It failed to recognize that men over 69 comprise one of the age groups most affected by this epidemic. I found two specific references:

· Among older adults,  the effect of social isolation on hypertension risk is even greater than that of other major clinical risk factors such as diabetes. p 26

· Chronic loneliness and social isolation can increase the risk of developing dementia by approximately 50% in older adults. P 28.

A more enlightening and relevant report would reveal that Olde Goats, men 70 and older,  are routinely discriminated against because of age. Include President Biden among those men tossed to the curb because of his age. Recently almost two-third of all polled said he is too old for another term and 48% of the Democrats polled agreed. 

Define Loneliness

Being alone differs from being lonely. The old saying goes something like: “You can be lonely in a crowd and alone in a deserted forest.” The Center for Disease Control defines loneliness as “Loneliness is the feeling of being alone, regardless of the amount of social contact.” Loneliness can grow inside you after a friend dies. I find it to be almost physical, 

I remember learning that these memories should be boxed up and permanently stored on the top shelf of some imaginary closet in my head .where it remained  dormant until I saw Mike’s spouse or one of their kids and winced from the pain of renewed loneliness.

Every Olde Goat probably has similar memories, hopefully stored, and infrequently remembered. Their escape can cause chronic loneliness. Help exists. 

What is Chronic Loneliness?

I want to share this comprehensive information sheet from Cigna Healthcare.  https://www.cigna.com/knowledge-center/chronic-loneliness 

Short-term bouts of loneliness can occur to many people at some point in their lives. These types of feelings are typically brief and not considered chronic. However, when feelings of loneliness and isolation worsen and continue long-term, there may be more serious signs and symptoms to be aware of and steps you can take to help deal with chronic loneliness.

Chronic loneliness occurs when feelings of loneliness and uncomfortable social isolation go on for a long period of time. It’s characterized by constant and unrelenting feelings of being alone, separated or divided from others, and an inability to connect on a deeper level. It can also be accompanied by deeply rooted feelings of self-doubt, low self-esteem, or social anxiety.1

Ongoing loneliness can afflict even the most seemingly outgoing person. Being the "life of the party" doesn't necessarily exclude someone from being chronically lonely. This type of chronic, or long-term loneliness, can eventually impact all areas of your life.

What are the main signs and symptoms of chronic loneliness?

Chronic loneliness symptoms and signs can differ depending on who you are and your situation. If you consistently feel some or all of the following, you may be dealing with chronic loneliness:

• Inability to connect with      others on a deeper, more intimate level. Maybe you have friends and family      in your life, but engagement with them is at a very surface level. Your      interaction doesn’t feel connected in a way that is fulfilling and this      disconnection seems never ending.
• No close or "best"      friends. You have friends, but they are casual friends or acquaintances      and you feel you can find no one who truly "gets" you.
• Overwhelming feeling of      isolation regardless of where you are and who’s around. You can be at a      party surrounded by dozens of people and, yet, you feel isolated,      separate, and disengaged. At work, you may feel alienated and alone. Same      on a bus, train, or walking down a busy street. It’s as if you’re in your      own unbreakable bubble.
• Negative feelings of self-doubt      and self-worth. Does it feel like you are always less than enough? These      feelings—long-term—are another possible symptom of chronic loneliness.
• When you try to connect or      reach out, it’s not reciprocated, and you’re not seen or heard.
• Exhaustion and burn out when      trying to engage socially. If you’re dealing with chronic loneliness,      trying to engage and be social with others can leave you feeling      exhausted. Continued feelings of being drained can lead to other issues      like sleep problems, a weakened immune system, poor diet, and more.

Can chronic loneliness lead to health problems?

Long-term feelings of loneliness can affect your health in many ways. For example, chronic loneliness can drive up cortisol levels in the body. Cortisol is a hormone that your body creates when under stress. Over time, higher cortisol levels can lead to high blood pressure, excess weight gain, muscle weakness, problems concentrating, and more.2

If left unchecked, these chronic loneliness symptoms can put you at greater risk for more serious medical and emotional problems, including:3

• Depression
• Anxiety
• Stroke
• Heart disease

If you think you are suffering with long-term feelings of loneliness, talk to your doctor or a therapist.

What does chronic loneliness do to your brain?

Research shows that chronic loneliness can have a significant impact on your overall health, including your brain health. Some studies even suggest that there may be a link between loneliness and an increased risk for developing dementia and Alzheimer's.3

Long term feelings of loneliness and social isolation can also reduce cognitive skills, such as the ability to concentrate, make decisions, problem-solve, and even change negative self-beliefs. And it can ultimately lead to depression.4

Who’s most at risk for chronic loneliness?

Chronic, or long-term, loneliness can afflict all types of people. It’s easy to assume that someone who’s naturally shy and introverted might be most at risk, but outgoing, Type A, personalities can also suffer from chronic loneliness, even though they may appear to be the life of the party. This type of loneliness is not exclusive to any one personality type.

For some people chronic loneliness may become a side effect of a medical or emotional problem, including those dealing with the following issues:

• Substance use
• Depression and bipolar disorder
• Serious illness or disease
• Some mild forms of autism, such      as Asperger's Syndrome
• Dementia and Alzheimer's
• Sexual orientation issues

All of these issues could also lead to long-term feelings of loneliness and isolation. Make sure your doctor, therapist, or other medical provider knows how you’re feeling emotionally.

What are some tips for dealing with chronic loneliness?

If you are dealing with feelings of loneliness that just don't go away, consider these tips:

• Talk to your doctor, a      therapist, or another health care professional. Chronic loneliness isn’t      limited to feelings of social isolation and alienation from others. It is      often tied to ongoing and deeply rooted negative beliefs about yourself      that can eventually lead to other medical and emotional problems. Let someone      know what’s going on.
• Engage with other people in a      positive, healthy way. Even though it may be difficult, try making the      effort to connect with others. Volunteering, hobby clubs, workout groups,      and other opportunities, can help boost self-esteem and provide a safe and      satisfying way to connect with others.
• Get some exercise and sunlight.      Getting active and out in the sunshine can help elevate endorphins and      serotonin.5 These “brain hormones” can boost mood, help      improve sleep, and make people feel happier.
• Find a support group,      especially if chronic loneliness is a side effect of some other issue you      might be dealing with, such as substance use, loss of a loved one, loneliness from a divorce or      break up , a      chronic and isolating illness, etc. Receiving support and encouragement      from others who may share similar feelings, could help ease symptoms of      chronic loneliness.

If you are dealing with long term loneliness, the kind that doesn’t go away, talk to your doctor or another health care provider so they can help. Chronic loneliness is not just about feeling alone; if left unchecked it can put you at risk for serious physical and emotional issues.

Enjoy your week.

Dan

Here is the question for May.:

What skill would you/did you teach your grandchildren, nephews, and nieces?

I created a separate page for the answers. I anticipate that you Olde Goats have many old school skills. Please include illustrations or photos if appropriate. 

Check  new short story page. Hemingway leads off.

GO DEEP GRAMPA

(“Toe-to-toe with the unknown”)*

[Advice]

BENJAMIN GLUTTON

Unknown author, “Benjamin Glutton”, Harper’s Magazine, May 2023

From explanations given by centenarians for their longevity, followed by their ages at the time the advice was recorded.

Smoke 15 cigarettes per day, 100.

Drink one glass of Coors Light at 4pm each day, 100.

Eat nine gin-soaked raisins each morning, 105

Drink a bottle of whiskey a week, 107 

Avoid water and drink up to four bottles of wine a night, 107

Knit sweaters for penguins, 108

Order hamburgers rare, eat chocolate, drink cocktails, and party, 108.

Do not get married and try to avoid all men, 109 

Drink three beers with a shot of Scotch each day, 110

Smoke 30 cigarettes a day, 112

Smoke cigarettes, drink whiskey, and meet women, 113 

Eat bacon regularly, 115

Eat ramen noodles and mackerel sushi regularly, 116

Eat one cooked egg, two raw eggs, and a portion of raw minced meat every day, 117

Eat olive oil regularly, consume more than two pounds of chocolate a week, drink wine, and smoke cigarettes, 122

I asked two friends to read this list. They agreed with me that these 15 folks were celebrating lives well led.

According to the Handbook of Research on Geriatric Health, Treatment, and Cure, “(O)ld age refers to ages nearing or surpassing the expectancy of human beings and is thus the end of the human life cycle. This definition includes our celebrating centenarians.

The most common definition labels all men over 60 or 65 as old. I believe that this definition follows the retirement age without considering the mental and physical condition of the person. 

Why is this important? 

This inhumane definition may be convenient for statisticians, but it offends the individual and particularly damages Olde Goats who have retired from their work life and been put out to pasture. Frequently, this leads to a lonely, depressing lifestyle that none of us should experience because of our age.

“Old” may accurately describe the condition of an inanimate object, as in "let's sell the useless old truck and buy a new one," but 'old" does not begin to describe the state of a person's life. “Old" connotes worn out, used up, and useless.  Unfortunately, "old" may reinforce how too many Old Goats feel: Useless, depressed, and suicidal.

What can be done?

Realistically, the common definition will not disappear.

But I suggest that the word “deep” better describes life. Deep like deep into the ocean or deep into space. Unlike old, older, oldest, the three degrees of depth - deep, deeper, deepest- bring forth the mystery of the unknown. 

And that, my fellow Olde Goats, describes life. Consciously or unconsciously, with every breath we explore the mystery of our life, including more unknowns than we can count.  We don’t stop exploring the depth at 60 or 100 or 122. 

If you are an Olde Goat who feels lonely, worthless, or depressed or like life isn’t worth living, go deep, and maybe one of these will help you think positively:

· Do not think of yourself as old. You are not. 

· If someone labels you old, tell her or him not to do it again, ever.

· Do not use your age as your sole excuse not to do something.

· Remember that your life belongs to you and that you make the decisions.

· Make a list of what you have done. We are all storytellers and enjoy swapping stories with others.

· Make a list of what you can do.

· Make a list of what you want to do.

· Go do the first thing on your list, then the second, and so forth.

· If you are alone, take your thought or goals to a senior center or other gathering place or join other Olde Goats like you at oldegoats.com.

· Make friends.

Go toe-to-toe with the unknown, and you might not experience old age until you celebrate with chocolate and wine at 122.

*From Paul Zarzyski’s poem “Roadwork in the Boneyard” published on the Poems Page at oldegoats.com

Here is the question for May.:

What skill would you/did you teach your grandchildren, nephews, and nieces?

I created a separate page for the answers. I anticipate that you Olde Goats have many old school skills. Please include illustrations or photos if appropriate. 

We are a charitable organization dedicated to serving our community. Our mission is to provide assistance to those in need and promote social welfare through a variety of programs and initiatives. With the help of our dedicated volunteers and generous donors, we are able to make a positive impact in the lives of many.

5 REASONS WHY I WON’T BUY AN EV NOW  PART 1

This week's EPA pronouncement that two-thirds of the new cars sold seven years from now will be evs demonstrates the government’s blind eye neglect of seniors, the growing lower middle class, and the poor. I will dissect this policy in the next blog.

As an old goat, I treasure each moment of each day and all the little things that make me smile. I have enjoyed driving since I bought my first car in 1959, a '56 Ford. Driving down the street with windows down and radio a little loud, driving to a new place, and driving down a country road with my wife, destination unclear. I think many old goats share similar feelings.

My cars have all been affordable, comfortable, and amenable to my directions. If I must give up my car, I want something of equal value back. The current evs do not provide that. 

They certainly are not affordable. I have limited income and maxxed out dreams. I do not want to pay 40-60,000 for an ev. 

They do not seem comfortable. I think would be like sitting in front of a computer in a very small room. I rode in an Uber driver’s Tesla in Vegas(of course). I could not believe the large size of the screen nor the near-constant directives from a voice that reminded me of a backseat harpy.

The ev does only what its electricity-addicted battery allows. Say you want to go directly from A to D. Your math and your map tell you the ev can make it with volts to spare. But the boring and cautious ev likely will route you through B and C to satisfy its battery. And don't even think about a drive in the country to a destination unclear. 

Maybe one day I will consider an ev will be the quality of a car. But not now for these reasons:

· COST

Average Price of the Top Ten Best-Selling EVs  

The average price of the top ten electric vehicles in the US is about $68,817, with an average of $57,750 for the low-end trim of each model and $70,460 for the high-end trim of each model.  For these ten EVs, prices range from $26,500 at the low end (the Chevrolet Bolt EV) and go all the way up to $119,990 for the most expensive trim of the Tesla Model X (still the base MSRP, since you can option the Model X up to $144,590).

Information from Find My Electric “The Ultimate EV Marketplace”

Most 70+ men probably would not want to pay these prices for a vehicle, except perhaps for the Chevy Volt. For example, using a price of $62,000, the approximate mean between the low-end high and low prices, and putting down 20% in down payment and trade-in, your monthly payment for a 7-year loan would be about $850 which is a lot to spend on a vehicle at this time of your life.

SUVs sold best in 1922, and the Toyota RAV-4 was the best-selling SUV at a base price of $23,000. This year, the b74x, Toyota’s electric SUV, starts at $42,000, an increase of $19K.

Many of us like or liked our F-150 which has been the bestselling truck for 46 consecutive years. Its base price for the EV Lightening has quietly increased from about $41,000 when Ford started its order list in October 2021 to $56,000 now. 

· ROUTE

The range provided by your battery and the location of charging stations will determine your route. You may have to go places that you do not want to go or travel an out-of-the-way route to reach your destination. And this could hours to your road trip. And it would eliminate side trips to areas devoid of charging stations.

· CHARGING STATIONS

Companies own and maintain these. Because they make money from the sale of electricity, they will for sure install stations in high ev traffic areas like major highways and busy resorts. Low-income and rural areas likely will be left behind. 

According to a J.D. Power's study, the number of failed attempts at a charging station increased from 15 percent in the first quarter of 2021 to 21 percent in the third quarter of 2022. I presume you would have to shorten the distance between charging stations to ensure you had mileage in the bank to get to another station.

· EMERGENCIES

I am thinking about natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes that could cut off power to the power stations. You would be stranded in your ev unless you had a generator at home.

I would rather have a gas car. Gasbuddy.com will list the names of gas stations with fuel in stricken areas, and some states have laws requiring gas stations to install transfer switches to allow the use of a generator to provide power to the pumps.

· ENVIRONMENT

Considering this alone, less pollution from evs should improve the environment. However, I am not convinced that the government-orchestrated switch to EV, with the unknown effects of this tsunamic change on the American way of life, will have a net positive effect on the environment. More on this next week.

Topic for  April -------

What is the favorite car you have owned?

Tell us about it.

Ostensibly, to reduce air pollution, the federal government and seven states want to force Americans to by ev's. The country has undergone major changes for the better but has never been driven by this mini-Mao tactic of government coercion.

The introduction of the Model T, which altered the meaning of the word horsepower, provides the best example of this change. After unsuccessfully introducing several cars, Ford introduced the Model T in 1909. It cost $825. 10,666 vehicles were sold. However, it caught on with the public. In 1911,34,857 were sold. Sales increased based on public demand, which reduced the cost which allowed Ford to reduce the price, which increased the number of buyers. This process continued through 1923 when more than two million Model Ts were purchased at $364 apiece. Competitors began producing more desirable vehicles, and Ford built the last of the 15 million Model Ts in 1927. 

But this process of demand and supply between consumer and manufacturer continued and irreversibly changed the U.S. into a country with millions of registered vehicles in 2021.

For this reason alone, the federal and state government should cease interfering and allow this process to continue. As evs and their charging systems improve, more people will choose to buy an ev, and prices will fall, increasing the number of buyers. In a perfect world, gas vehicles will follow the horse and buggy to private property and museums.

But there are two other reasons why federal and state governments should go no further with this misguided project.

The ev needs a lithium battery, and lithium is an expensive mineral. Most of the lithium is mined in China, Chile, Argentina, and Australia. China refines most of the lithium, and sources most of the U.S.'s lithium. There is one small mine in the U.S. The U.S. ev manufacturers must compete with China, Germany, and all other countries producing evs for lithium. It has been likened to a gold rush. According to an International Energy Agency(IEA) report, existing mines and mines under construction will meet only 50% of the projected lithium need by 2030.

So, the questions are; Whether the manufacturers will have lithium batteries for the 8M vehicles the government is demanding they build? And if the answer is “who knows”, Is it not immoral for the government to demand that their citizens buy evs with no batteries?

Finally, environmental concerns exist on the front and the back ends. Despite being a relatively new industry, lithium extraction has a track record of land and water pollution. On the back end, the search continues for an ecologically safe way to dispose of or recycle lithium batteries. 

Finally, I am not alone in thinking this plan will not work. The respected international news service Reuters is equally skeptical. Check out https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOS-ELECTRIC/USA/mopanyqxwva/

Dan Bell

March 21, 2023

At sixteen I was nervous as hell as I headed toward the office door. A short guy smudged with grease with a ciggie hanging from his mouth met me halfway. He introduced himself as Don the owner. I told him I wanted the gas station attendant job for the summer. Don silently inspected me for what seemed like a couple days, then told me to follow him. I remember that I said no when he asked if I was afraid of work. Don told me to start work the day after school ended. I couldn’t believe I got the job.  The station was the real full-service deal. Two sets of two pumps. Two bays. Mechanic on duty. Located at a main intersection on the newly constructed I-25 in suburban south Denver, summer travelers joined neighborhood regulars lining up at the pumps. A black, electrified cord running across the tarmac rang ding-ding when a car ran over it, calling me into action. I was the first man up that summer. Through the open window, the summer’s call-and-response went something like this:“How can I help you?”“Give me five dollars”“Regular or hi-test?”“Regular.” One day Don heard me offer “cheap or expensive” gas. After the customer left, he got in my face shouting that I should never use the word cheap to describe the products. Cheap, he said, means inferior. The tone of Don’s words imprinted my teenage brain. Sixty-four years later, I still ignore products advertised as “cheap”. I washed all the windows automatically and, if the driver wanted, I checked the tires. Under the hood, I wiped the dipstick clean with my red shop rag and guide it back into its hole for a measurement, checked the water by very, very gently turning the radiator cap to release the pressure. and checked the fan belt. The job ended with the bang of the hood.It could be car after car for hours. For the first time, I dripped the sweat from working hard, licked the blood from scraped knuckles, and laughed at bad jokes with men. I liked being included when Don, Joe, Kulakowski, Jerry, and the rest of the crew gathered around the red Coke machine to play a game I think Don invented. We each flipped the bottle over to get the city name where it was bottled. The farthest away won. Don is one of my memorable men. My firsts with him included my first beer in a bar and a visit to the dog races. Most importantly, Don taught me to value blue-collar work and gave me a deep respect for blue-collar workers which, in turn, gave me the confidence to take jobs as a tree trimmer, roofer, cab driver, grocery bagger, and lobster fisherman before I went to law school.I worked at the station for two summers before going away to college. At the Christmas break, I went to see Don about the next summer. He didn’t have the station anymore. I didn’t want any job. It would not have been the same without Don. 
 

Men over 65 have the highest suicide rate of any age group, according to the National Institute of Health(NIH): 24.7 per 100,000 for men 65-74 compared to 5.6 for women that age and 40.7 for men over 75, more than 10 times the 3.9  rate for women in that age group. No one has established a precise cause, but irrelevance, depression, and poor physical and mental health are prime suspects.

Olde Goats generally were in charge during our prime work lives. We called the shots and set the agenda. That power and control became part of who we were. It fell away when we retired creating a cavern in our core. Unless we will it otherwise, the cavern walls will erode forming the deep pit known as depression.

Fortunately, we can control our own relevance by our actions. . The LSU women’s basketball team is a very recent example erasing irrelevance. In 2021, that team finished 9-13 and was totally irrelevant in terms of the NCAA tournament. The school acted in 2021 to become relevant by hiring a tigress who pieced together the team that became very relevant in 2023.

You can achieve, on your own, the same degree of relevance.

1. Be Relevant. Advocating for a return to” back-in-the-day” will make you irrelevant. The tech devices are here to stay. However, you will be relevant if you teach your grandchildren what they cannot learn from these devices like how to change a tire and how to pack a suitcase. 

2. Be Active. To me, this means doing all that your body will allow. My cardio said that the heart loves exercise. Build a personal exercise routine that stretches your muscles. Respect your body’s changes. Before COVID, I regularly was on the podium for 5K runs in my age bracket. Now, my body has told me that my knees limit me to hiking and daily walks and that my torn rotator cuff keeps me on the sideline for golf and pickleball. 

3. Be a Mentor or a Volunteer. This automatically could make you feel relevant because it may replace the sense of satisfaction your job gave you. Helping a child or another Olde Goat is special.

4. Maintain your Health. This has two parts. First, you need to take care of yourself by getting the necessary protein, exercise, water, and sleep. I will blog later about my PEWS plan. Second, you must let the medical providers take care of you. I don’t mean that you should become a hypochondriac. You know your body. If you have something new that doesn’t go away, make an appointment. That growth may not be pre-cancerous but, then again, it may be. My shortness of breath lead to a heart valve replacement three years ago. If I had ignored it, I would not be here today.

5. Share your experiences. No one else has your life experiences which you wove into the national fabric of the last 70+ years. Like jewels, each story gives color and texture to the picture you present to family members and friends. At every chance, tell your story and listen to the stories of others. You may find something in common.

Help other Olde Goats by posting here your tricks to remain relevant.

COMMENTS

 Thanks Dan.  I particularly liked Point 1 - teaching the non-tech to the kids.  Jimmy is particularly good at that with Avery, it's nice to see.  Have to work more on that myself with our grandkids.

Benn    V.

Before you reached 70+, you probably had worked at least 50 years. Whether you were sitting at a desk or driving an 18-wheeler, your job became part of your identity. When you meet someone new, most likely you'll hear this question right away: "Where did you work?" 

The odds are good that you enjoy answering that question. If you averaged 40 hours a week and 50 weeks a year for 50 years, you worked 100,000 hours. That is a lot of memories in your memory bank. Right? If you can share those memories, it will make you feel like you are still connected to your work. I saw this a couple of weeks ago during the break in our monthly card game. Ted, a regular player our age, mentioned he had worked in China. I asked him what he did. In a monologue, he described his adventures selling airplane parts in Asia in the 1970s. He stopped only because we resumed playing.

Here is another example of a "Where I Work" story I heard from a retired man who worked as a supervisor for a plant in Maryland in the 1980s. The owner told him that he was moving the factory to China. Of course, he did not like that, but here's what really upset him. The owner required him to go to China to train his replacement as a condition of giving him severance pay,  

During your work-life, an amazing number of significant events affected employed people, and may have radically changed your life. 

1929 Great Depression

1938 First minimum wage .25/Hour

1940 May Fuller receives first SS check -$22.54

1941-45 WWII

1945-69 Post-War boom

1950-53 Korean War

1950 First 35 military advisors go to Vietnam

1950-75 Vietnam War

1957 First Toyota HQ in the US

1958 First US satellite orbits

1964 Civil Rights Act

1961-69 Economic expansion

1968-82 Inflation

1973 Arab Oil Embargo higher energy prices caused Stagflation with High unemployment and high inflation

1976 Apple sells its first personal computer.

1979 US begins diplomatic relations with China

1980-82 Recession

1983-90 Solid growth

1991 Iraq War

1992 End of Cold War

1993 NAFTA

1990-1999 Growth of the tech industry

2001 China admitted to World Trade Organization

2002-2013 US loses 2.4 million jobs to China

(Source: Economic Policy Institute)

2001 Dot.com bubble bursts causing a recession

2001 9-11

2007-8 Market Crash and Great Recession

2010 Some jobs return to the US from China

2019 COVID

2023 economic insecurity, high inflation, low unemployment, and ??

Did one of these events affect your life? Tell us about it. Two or three paragraphs will be fine. Write as you talk. Send it to dan@oldegoats.com, and I will post it on the Where I Work page. Don't forget to sign your name.