innovative Caterpillar

It is never too early to plan for Halloween and the next election.

Studies of a Hawaiian caterpillar, known as the “bone collector”, in the April ScienceNews magazine have opened exciting new possibilities in the fields of design and disguise. According to the  article, this uninvited caterpillar shares a spider’s web. It hides from its host by adorning its own silken case with leftovers from the spider’s meals while awaiting its transformation into a moth.

“This is a decorate or die situation”, said Dan Rubinoff, an entomologist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa in Honolulu.

Instead of beetle butts and wasp wings, I’m looking to outfit myself with representative parts and pieces of the governing party such as a used MAGA hat, a straw colored-toupee, bright red tie, a replica of Musk’s black outfit worn in the Oval Office, a fragment of Secretary Noem’s stolen purse, a piece of Secretary Hegseth’s misused cell, and whatever else comes along.

To be fair, I wanted to design a costume for the opposition party, but I found only a wrinkled Bernie/OC flyer. In the costume  business, you can’t make something out of nothing.    

Congress must respond to the one-two punches of Helene and Milton the same way it responded to 911 by establishing a Department for Natural Disasters to reduce the magnitude of natural disasters before, during, and after they occur. 

The number of natural disasters in the United States increased from 3 to 28 between 1982 and 2022 following the unexpected effects of climate change. There is no end in sight. There is no credible reason to believe that the severity and frequency of natural disasters will not continue to increase. This means more damage, death, and anguish in American communities. The federal government has the same constitutional obligation to take care of its people affected by natural disasters as it did to protect people from foreign terrorism. Interestingly, foreign terrorism and national disasters have run eerily parallel courses. Both originate outside the US, and, over the years, our government watched each grow more dangerous. Sadly, only after the horror of 911 did the government act to protect the people from terrorism by creating the Department of Homeland Security(DHS) in 2002. (As a  side note, there has not been a 911-type attack in the US since.)

Natural disasters, such as Hurricane Helene and Milton, present the same type of threat as foreign terrorists. A natural disaster can strike anywhere, at any time, with minimal warning, and create serious damage of all types. Helene left an unimaginable trail of death and destruction from its landfall in the Florida Panhandle 500 miles inland to the mountains of Southern Appalachia. No one in a small mountain community could have imagined that  a hurricane would obliterate their town or wash their home  down the mountain.  For these unfortunates, the devastation was as mind-blowing as 911 was to the people of New York City.

And like 911, Helene and Milton must serve as our call to action. We need to respond in the same way by creating a Department of Natural Disasters immediately to lessen the magnitude of the damage from natural disasters. Congress also should establish a bi-partisan commission, like the 911 Commission, to guide the Department’s efforts to forecast and mitigate each natural disaster before they strike, improve relief efforts during the event, and hasten repairs and rebuilding after it occurs. 

Some may object, maintaining that creation of a new  Department represents one more government encroachment into individual lives. Like terrorism, natural disasters are national events from the wildfires of Maui to the flooding in Vermont. States and localities do not have the resources to meet all their people’s needs; witness the southern Appalachian Mountain region now. The Department will bring together experts from all relevant fields to create a workable and effective policy to minimize the loss from natural disasters and will work with state, local, and private interests to achieve that goal.

Others may ask how this Department will be funded. All existing agencies involved in natural disaster mitigation and relief, such as FEMA, will be consolidated in the new Department. If additional funds are required, some may contend that, under the Constitution, we have a duty to take care of our own before we send billions to other governments to take care or their people.

We clearly need a new federal Department to meet the challenges of increasing natural disasters. President Bush signed the bill creating the Department of Homeland Security 14 months after 911. Congress should act with equal speed to put the bill creating the Department for Natural Disasters on our new President’s desk.

Dan Bell

10/18/2024 

Definition

An executive order is defined as a declaration by the president or a governor which has the force of law, usually based on existing statutory powers. Executive orders do not require any action by the Congress or state legislature to take effect, and the legislature cannot overturn it.

Source: Legal Information Institute, Cornell University

Purpose

Executive Orders are issued by the White House and are used to direct the Executive Branch of the U.S. Government. Executive Orders state mandatory requirements for the Executive Branch, and have the effect of law.

Source: Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response

Can an Executive Order be Overturned?

(1) The President who issued an Executive Order can revoke it. 

(2) Likewise, an incumbent President has the power to revoke an Executive Order issued by a predecessor.

(3) Congress also has the power to overturn an Executive Order by passing legislation that invalidates it. (The President, of course, may veto such legislation, in which case Congress may override the veto by a two-thirds majority). 

(4) Congress could also effectively thwart an Executive Order calling for an action that requires funding by using its power of the purse to deny the necessary funding. 

(5) Finally, the courts have the power to stay enforcement or ultimately overturn an Executive Order that is found to be beyond the President’s constitutional authority.

` Source: American Bar Association

10 of the Most Consequential Executive Orders and Proclamations

2. Funding for the Manhattan Project (1941)

3. Mass Incarceration of Japanese Americans (1942)

4.  Desegregation of the U.S. Military (1948)

5. LGBTQ Workers Barred from Government Jobs 

(1953)

6. National Guard Deployed to Desegregate Public Schools (1957)

7. Creation of the Peace Corps (1961)

8. Affirmative Action in Government Contracting (1965)

9. Pardon of Richard Nixon (1974)

10. Creation of the Department of Homeland Security (2001)

Source: www.History.com

First President to Issue an Executive Order

George Washington’s First Executive Order

During his Presidency George Washington issued what can loosely be described as eight “Executive Orders.” The first  was issued by letter dated June 8, 1789 asking executive department heads to provide “a full precise, and distinct general idea of the affairs of the United States” they oversaw.

Source: www.statutesandstories.com Collections and Reflections on American Legal History

President Who Issued the Most Executive 

Franklin D. Roosevelt (1931-1945) issued more Executive Orders that any other President at 3,522. Five of those orders were overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1935.

Source: American Bar Association 

 Does Ai Mix with Poetry? My Interview with Tom Solheim on his AI-generated poem about Virginia Woolf’s death.

Tom and I have been good friends since law school at the University of Wisconsin. He edited the  Law Review and built a successful law firm in Madison. I highly respect his judgement and intellect and share his curiosity.

I would have thought that Tom agreed with my skepticism about any incursion by generative AI into the creative process. So, Tom’s ChatGPT-created poem exploring the Virginia Woolf’s last thoughts before she committed suicide surprised me. H agreed to an interview. His prompt to ChatGPT, the AI-gen generated poem, and our Q and A follow 

.

The Prompt:

. Compose a poem. of 40-80 lines of free verse, expressing the thoughts that went through the mind of Virginia Woolf during the 30 minutes or so before she died, as she went to the edge of a pond, filled her pockets with stones, and walked out into deep water. Her thoughts might include her formation of an intention, observations, fears, perceptions of other emotions, sensory perceptions, planning, memories, directions to herself, questions, or other thoughts.

The Poem:

Beneath the Surface: Virginia Woolf

The world grows quiet,

a fragile hush,

the river a glassy heart,

reflecting clouds like thoughts—

so heavy, so scattered,

as I stand at the edge,

a realm between longing and release.

The stone I take,

a fragment of me,

cold, smooth,

nestled in my pocket,

its weight a whispered promise,

an echo of yesterday,

or was it a dream?

Am I seen by the trees,

their limbs outstretched,

guardians of this stillness?

Do they sense the tremor,

the dance of my heart

as it teeters on the brink

of something profound,

something final?

Memory floods,

the laughter of Leonard,

his gentle eyes,

the joy of words spilling

onto the page,

but shadows creep in,

a darkness that thickens

like fog rolling in from the sea.

What is it to be alive

when each breath feels heavy,

a burden wrapped in silk,

the ache of creation

clashing with the weight

of expectation,

a pendulum swinging

between brilliance and despair?

I think of the tides,

the pull of the ocean,

the way it calls to me,

a lover from afar,

its depths beckoning,

a sanctuary for all

that feels too much to bear.

In these last moments,

questions swirl like leaves—

Will they understand?

Will my words linger,

haunting the air like ghosts,

whispering secrets to the wind?

Or will they fade,

lost in the folds of time?

Here, the water shimmers,

a silken veil,

a promise of stillness,

and I feel the stone,

a testament

to the weight of my thoughts,

my fears, my hopes,

sinking deeper,

drawing me closer.

Am I a ship adrift,

lost in a storm of my own making,

or a bird longing to land,

to find peace in silence,

to dissolve into the embrace

of the liquid depths,

where pain transforms

into something ineffable,

something whole?

The sky darkens,

and I stand at the precipice,

between what was and what may be,

a tapestry of life

woven with threads of sorrow,

with the light of fleeting joy

flickering like candle flames,

fragile and beautiful.

What if this choice,

this descent,

is not an end,

but a beginning,

a shedding of skin,

a turning toward the unknown,

the unseen waters

that cradle my fears,

my fractured dreams?

And so, I breathe,

each inhale a prayer,

each exhale a release,

the world narrowing,

the river inviting,

and with each step,

I surrender,

a final dance with the deep.

What will they say of me?

Will they find me in the pages,

in the whispers of the wind,

or will I drift,

a shadow beneath the surface,

where silence reigns

and the stone rests with others,

each one a part of the whole,

each one a piece of my soul,

returning home.

This is unabridged except for Tom’s few minor changes: ” I edited only a little.  Changing from plural, stones, to one stone. A couple other minor changes.  The title came from ChatGPT, except I added the name, to make it more explicit.”

The Interview

Dan:

What inspired you to start this project?

Tom:

This project arose from a discussion about use of artificial intelligence for the production of poetry, initiated by my friend Dan Bell before this interview.
I am not a poet or artist of any kind, so this is done naively and without any urge to create. I like poetry but am an amateur, usually reading a curated poem every day. Curiosity about her thoughts is the motivation.

Dan

Why did you use AI?

Tom

I suspected that artificial intelligence particularly ChatGPT, would likely produce something that sounded and looked like poetry but would be fairly light on accurately or convincingly conveying thoughts and feelings. Lately I had also been thinking about Virginia Woolf’s end of life. Combining these thoughts, I wondered how effective ChatGPT would be at a poem that conveyed some of her last thoughts, given a rather detailed prompt. 

Dan

Hoe did you react to the poem?

Tom

My initial reaction when the poem first appeared was awe, a feeling that I was getting a little peek into another mind. The resulting poem strikes me as possible true thoughts.

Dan:

Were you concerned that used lines from other poems? 

Tom:

Some lines could easily have been copied from poems about death or Virgina Woolf.  Others have a feel of some originality, not words that many persons might say. I did Google searches on a couple of the lines that seemed unique and didn’t get any hits showing they were part of existing poems.

Dan:

How did this poem affect you:

Tom:

I am also satisfied, that by thinking hard about a prompt, and effectively using artificial intelligence, I have expanded my consciousness a little bit. This could be classified as creative.

“Cause when you are walking on thin ice you might as well 

dance, dance, dance.” * 

All active old goats youth of the 40’s becomes the aging of the 60’s. Eyes. Knees, Memory. They all start to go. Conversations quickly turn to and linger on operations, pills, and disease. No question about it, our lives exist on thin ice. The ice either gradually melts or suddenly opens under our feet. We all know the ending.

Facts About Older Adult Falls from the CDC

• About 36 million falls are reported among older adults each year—resulting in more than 32,000 deaths.
• Each year, about 3 million older adults are treated in emergency departments for a fall injury.
• One out of every five falls causes an injury, such as broken bones or a head injury.
• Each year at least 300,000 older people are hospitalized for hip fractures.
• More than 95% of hip fractures are caused by falling—usually by falling sideways.
• Women fall more often than men and account for three-quarters of all hip fractures.

But we are active oldsters, right? We are alive. We play. We laugh at ourselves and with our friends and families. We think positively, try new foods, and accept a challenge.  That’s why I love this quote. No tippy toeing around worrying about cracks. We choose to dance. We rock.

Because we want to dance through our last breaths, and because we are diminished and have a reduced ability to focus, we must compromise on what we do and how we do it.

My three helpful tips are named Space, Pace, and Place. They are free, they do not come in a bottle, and no outside assistance is required. I will blog about them one at a time beginning with Space.

“Space” takes many different forms such as outer space, storage space, emotional space, and living space.  I want you to focus on the space you occupy at a given moment. You control this particular personal space. Let’s illustrate with an exercise. First, put on some music. Second, go to your entry door. Third, point yourself toward your kitchen. Fourth, spread your arms to create your maximum body width fingertip-to-fingertip. Imagine that you form a cylinder of space which is your height and the diameter of your arms-spread. You control this special space, and you determine what belongs in that space. Fifth, look at the floor in your space. Any shoes, wrinkled rugs, or other objects that do not belong? Remember you live on thin ice. You do want to risk slipping on a pet toy or tripping over a chair leg. Sixth, clear your space. Seventh, move your personal space cylinder along your chosen path to the kitchen, clearing obstacles as you go. Make sure to use your path even if it meanders around a table or the sofa in front of the TV. This is your space in your life. Eighth, clear paths to your bathroom, bedroom, and other parts of your living quarters, keeping the music playing. 

You have created a safe dance floor around your home. You must take ownership and responsibility for this space and any other similar spaces you create elsewhere. Literally, you want to dance everywhere safely on thin ice. Equally important, it will reduce our real fear of falling. As I said this applies to every path you take wherever you are.

For example, my eldest sister failed to follow this advice and tripped over a misplaced suitcase in a motel room last December. She cracked a knee to two spots and is still recovering.

*Introductory quote from Scott Kirby’s title song of his CD “Walkin on Thin Ice.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StB2lVdg96c

I am writing this to help you stay relevant.

Better to be away from the crowd, than to be shorn by generative AI.

When I wrote my last AI blog, I thought that a middle ground existed between good medical research AI and bad, scammy AI.

I was wrong. I did not know that a generative AI tsunami targeting our brains had flooded the middle ground this year. I am not an AI expert, but I am obligated to warn you about generative AI. I am concerned that its users may take advantage of you and that, in general, its use may degrade your lives. I encourage you to read the experts’ pro and con opinions on the Pew Research site found below.

What is “generative AI”?

Generative AI is traditional AI on steroids. It allows a company to convert sound, including your voice, and images, including your face, into text, images, and videos that help it sell you its product.  

Here is the definition from Investopedia.

“Generative AI is a type of artificial intelligence that can produce content such as audio, text, code, video, images, and other data. Whereas traditional AI algorithms may be used to identify patterns within a training data set and make predictions, generative AI uses machine learning algorithms to create outputs based on a training data set. 

Generative AI can produce outputs in the same medium in which it is prompted (e.g., text-to-text) or in a different medium from the given prompt (e.g., text-to-image or image-to-video). Popular examples of generative AI include ChatGPT, Bard, DALL-E, Midjourney, and DeepMind.”

Do boundaries exist for “generative AI”?

Not yet. No laws have been passed. And it appears that the AI developers can not define the boundaries.

Who supports “generative AI”?

Some researchers and developers

Companies that manufacture products, like ChatGPT, that allow consumers to use generative AI.

Online advertising companies. According to July’s CNBC report “How the Generative AI Boom Could Forever Change Online Advertising”,. it represents the next step in digital advertising. And the richest and most powerful online advertisers agree.

“Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, the leaders in online advertising, are all betting generative AI will eventually be core to their businesses. They’ve each recently debuted products or announced plans to develop various tools to help companies more easily create messages, images and even videos for their respective platforms.” 

The smaller advertisers will follow the big boys.

Old Goats know that the only purpose of advertising is to sell you as much as you will buy. Beware of the “various tools” and remember that you are in charge of your life.

Is anyone concerned about “Generative AI”?

Yes, In June, the well-regarded Pew Research Center reported the opinions of experts in “As AI spreads Experts Predict Best and Worst Changes in Digital Life by 2035.”

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/06/21/as-ai-spreads-experts-predict-the-best-and-worst-changes-in-digital-life-by-2035/

“Some 79% of the canvassed experts said they are more concerned than excited about coming technological change or equally concerned and excited.”

Here are some of their concerns:

· That digital systems will continue to be driven by profit incentives in economics and power incentives in politics. 

· These experts fear new threats to rights will arise as privacy becomes harder, if not impossible, to maintain. They cite surveillance advances, sophisticated bots embedded in civic spaces, the spread of deepfakes and disinformation, advanced facial recognition systems, and widening social and digital divides as looming threats. They foresee crimes and harassment spreading more widely, and the rise of new challenges to humans’ agency and security. A topmost concern is the expectation that increasingly sophisticated AI is likely to lead to the loss of jobs, resulting in a rise in poverty and the diminishment of human dignity.

· They fear that the best of knowledge will be lost or neglected in a sea of mis- and disinformation, that the institutions previously dedicated to informing the public will be further decimated, that basic facts will be drowned out in a sea of entertaining distractions, bald-faced lies and targeted manipulation. They worry that people’s cognitive skills will decline. In addition, they argued that “reality itself is under siege” as emerging digital tools convincingly create deceptive or alternate realities. They worry that a class of “doubters” will hold back progress.

· A share of these experts said humanity’s embrace of digital systems has already spurred high levels of anxiety and depression and predicted things could worsen as technology embeds itself further in people’s lives and social arrangements.

· Two overarching concerns: a trend toward autonomous weapons and cyberwarfare, and the prospect of runaway digital systems. They also said things could worsen as the pace of tech change accelerates. They expect that people’s distrust in each other may grow and their faith in institutions may deteriorate. 

A  final thought. Regular use of our brain stalls memory loss and related diseases such as Alzheimer’s.  To the extent we let Generative AI take over our brains do we hasten the arrival of these two conditions which devastate our later life?  

Ho. Hum. That best describes the report released last week “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation: The U.S. Surgeon General’s Advisory on the Healing Effects of Social Connection and Community.”  I found this 82-page report with 325 footnotes to be a stale compilation of the opinions of others supporting general call for help from government agencies and non-profits that I presume already provide help.

This is No Report for Old Men

It failed to recognize that men over 69 comprise one of the age groups most affected by this epidemic. I found two specific references:

· Among older adults,  the effect of social isolation on hypertension risk is even greater than that of other major clinical risk factors such as diabetes. p 26

· Chronic loneliness and social isolation can increase the risk of developing dementia by approximately 50% in older adults. P 28.

A more enlightening and relevant report would reveal that Olde Goats, men 70 and older,  are routinely discriminated against because of age. Include President Biden among those men tossed to the curb because of his age. Recently almost two-third of all polled said he is too old for another term and 48% of the Democrats polled agreed. 

Define Loneliness

Being alone differs from being lonely. The old saying goes something like: “You can be lonely in a crowd and alone in a deserted forest.” The Center for Disease Control defines loneliness as “Loneliness is the feeling of being alone, regardless of the amount of social contact.” Loneliness can grow inside you after a friend dies. I find it to be almost physical, 

I remember learning that these memories should be boxed up and permanently stored on the top shelf of some imaginary closet in my head .where it remained  dormant until I saw Mike’s spouse or one of their kids and winced from the pain of renewed loneliness.

Every Olde Goat probably has similar memories, hopefully stored, and infrequently remembered. Their escape can cause chronic loneliness. Help exists. 

What is Chronic Loneliness?

I want to share this comprehensive information sheet from Cigna Healthcare.  https://www.cigna.com/knowledge-center/chronic-loneliness 

Short-term bouts of loneliness can occur to many people at some point in their lives. These types of feelings are typically brief and not considered chronic. However, when feelings of loneliness and isolation worsen and continue long-term, there may be more serious signs and symptoms to be aware of and steps you can take to help deal with chronic loneliness.

Chronic loneliness occurs when feelings of loneliness and uncomfortable social isolation go on for a long period of time. It’s characterized by constant and unrelenting feelings of being alone, separated or divided from others, and an inability to connect on a deeper level. It can also be accompanied by deeply rooted feelings of self-doubt, low self-esteem, or social anxiety.1

Ongoing loneliness can afflict even the most seemingly outgoing person. Being the "life of the party" doesn't necessarily exclude someone from being chronically lonely. This type of chronic, or long-term loneliness, can eventually impact all areas of your life.

What are the main signs and symptoms of chronic loneliness?

Chronic loneliness symptoms and signs can differ depending on who you are and your situation. If you consistently feel some or all of the following, you may be dealing with chronic loneliness:

• Inability to connect with      others on a deeper, more intimate level. Maybe you have friends and family      in your life, but engagement with them is at a very surface level. Your      interaction doesn’t feel connected in a way that is fulfilling and this      disconnection seems never ending.
• No close or "best"      friends. You have friends, but they are casual friends or acquaintances      and you feel you can find no one who truly "gets" you.
• Overwhelming feeling of      isolation regardless of where you are and who’s around. You can be at a      party surrounded by dozens of people and, yet, you feel isolated,      separate, and disengaged. At work, you may feel alienated and alone. Same      on a bus, train, or walking down a busy street. It’s as if you’re in your      own unbreakable bubble.
• Negative feelings of self-doubt      and self-worth. Does it feel like you are always less than enough? These      feelings—long-term—are another possible symptom of chronic loneliness.
• When you try to connect or      reach out, it’s not reciprocated, and you’re not seen or heard.
• Exhaustion and burn out when      trying to engage socially. If you’re dealing with chronic loneliness,      trying to engage and be social with others can leave you feeling      exhausted. Continued feelings of being drained can lead to other issues      like sleep problems, a weakened immune system, poor diet, and more.

Can chronic loneliness lead to health problems?

Long-term feelings of loneliness can affect your health in many ways. For example, chronic loneliness can drive up cortisol levels in the body. Cortisol is a hormone that your body creates when under stress. Over time, higher cortisol levels can lead to high blood pressure, excess weight gain, muscle weakness, problems concentrating, and more.2

If left unchecked, these chronic loneliness symptoms can put you at greater risk for more serious medical and emotional problems, including:3

• Depression
• Anxiety
• Stroke
• Heart disease

If you think you are suffering with long-term feelings of loneliness, talk to your doctor or a therapist.

What does chronic loneliness do to your brain?

Research shows that chronic loneliness can have a significant impact on your overall health, including your brain health. Some studies even suggest that there may be a link between loneliness and an increased risk for developing dementia and Alzheimer's.3

Long term feelings of loneliness and social isolation can also reduce cognitive skills, such as the ability to concentrate, make decisions, problem-solve, and even change negative self-beliefs. And it can ultimately lead to depression.4

Who’s most at risk for chronic loneliness?

Chronic, or long-term, loneliness can afflict all types of people. It’s easy to assume that someone who’s naturally shy and introverted might be most at risk, but outgoing, Type A, personalities can also suffer from chronic loneliness, even though they may appear to be the life of the party. This type of loneliness is not exclusive to any one personality type.

For some people chronic loneliness may become a side effect of a medical or emotional problem, including those dealing with the following issues:

• Substance use
• Depression and bipolar disorder
• Serious illness or disease
• Some mild forms of autism, such      as Asperger's Syndrome
• Dementia and Alzheimer's
• Sexual orientation issues

All of these issues could also lead to long-term feelings of loneliness and isolation. Make sure your doctor, therapist, or other medical provider knows how you’re feeling emotionally.

What are some tips for dealing with chronic loneliness?

If you are dealing with feelings of loneliness that just don't go away, consider these tips:

• Talk to your doctor, a      therapist, or another health care professional. Chronic loneliness isn’t      limited to feelings of social isolation and alienation from others. It is      often tied to ongoing and deeply rooted negative beliefs about yourself      that can eventually lead to other medical and emotional problems. Let someone      know what’s going on.
• Engage with other people in a      positive, healthy way. Even though it may be difficult, try making the      effort to connect with others. Volunteering, hobby clubs, workout groups,      and other opportunities, can help boost self-esteem and provide a safe and      satisfying way to connect with others.
• Get some exercise and sunlight.      Getting active and out in the sunshine can help elevate endorphins and      serotonin.5 These “brain hormones” can boost mood, help      improve sleep, and make people feel happier.
• Find a support group,      especially if chronic loneliness is a side effect of some other issue you      might be dealing with, such as substance use, loss of a loved one, loneliness from a divorce or      break up , a      chronic and isolating illness, etc. Receiving support and encouragement      from others who may share similar feelings, could help ease symptoms of      chronic loneliness.

If you are dealing with long term loneliness, the kind that doesn’t go away, talk to your doctor or another health care provider so they can help. Chronic loneliness is not just about feeling alone; if left unchecked it can put you at risk for serious physical and emotional issues.

Enjoy your week.

Dan

Here is the question for May.:

What skill would you/did you teach your grandchildren, nephews, and nieces?

I created a separate page for the answers. I anticipate that you Olde Goats have many old school skills. Please include illustrations or photos if appropriate. 

Check  new short story page. Hemingway leads off.

This blog covers the Bad.

HOW CAN AI HARM ME?

The scammers. These seriously twisted individuals who steal billions per year from Olde Goats. They deserve a special circle in Dante’s Inferno.

The Michigan Attorney General stated that “AI technology allows scammers to easily create and personalize scams to make them more convincing. It uses personal information pulled from social media profiles and other online sources to tailor the scam to you.” It recommended protecting yourself from these reptilian creatures by:

· Don’t trust the voice.

· Be skeptical when asked for money in any form.

· Hang up

· Call the person using a number you know to be theirs. 

In addition, security experts recommend establishing  secret word with loved ones to be used in an emergency and to reveal a scam.

Learn to recognize the ingredients of a scam.

• Pressure to act immediately.
• Use of scare tactics or enticing      offers.
• An offer too good to be true.
• Demand for money, typically in an      unusual form, either by wire transfer, gift card, pay app, or crypto.
• Requests for sensitive or      personal information.

Here are some frequent scams.

The Deepfake

The scammer creates a fake relative or close friend by using a clip from her voice taken from social media or a website, a copy of her face, and her personal information from various online sites. 

You would swear that she was real. Your phone rings. The caller’s ID matches her number. She looks and sounds like your granddaughter. You would swear it was her She tells a tragic story of misidentification by the police, jail, and her need for $5000 right away for bail and an attorney. She instructs you where to send the money and tells you she’ll repay it promptly. She has always been a good girl. You agree.

After an hour of tears and worry, you call her. “Oh, gramps,” she says. “I never called you. You’ve been scammed. You need to get your money back.”

Of course, that is not easy. The Michigan AG suggests that you act  immediately to minimize any damage. If you paid by:

• Credit or debit card - contact      the company or bank that issued the card and report the fraudulent charge.
• Bank transfer - inform your bank      of an unauthorized debit or withdrawal.
• Gift card - contact the company      that issued the gift card and report fraud. Typically, these transactions      are not traceable or reversible.
• Payment app - report the      transaction to the company behind the app. These apps require you to link      it with a credit or debit card. Report the transaction to the fraud      department for that card. Pay apps are not regulated and many do not offer      transfer protections. You may be forced to rely on the goodwill of the      recipient to return the funds.
• Cryptocurrency - contact the      company you used to send the money. These transactions typically are not      reversible, and the return of funds falls on the person who received them      to return them.
• Wire transfer - contact the wire      transfer company to see about canceling the money transfer.
  • MoneyGram at       800-926-9400
  • Western Union at       800-448-1492

You can also file a report with your local law enforcement agency and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) at 877-382-4357.

Here are some other frequent scams that target Olde Goats.

The Romance Scam

Lonely Olde Goats frequent online dating sites. You describe the person you would like to meet. The scammer crafts the voice and image of your ideal date. After a few successful video dates to build a relationship, this ideal date will ask for money and will continue to ask for as long as you will give. As soon as you stop giving, she will be gone.

The Ransom Attack 

This is like The Deepfake only a third person makes that call demanding money to save the loved person who is in trouble. The scammers may create the relative’s fake voice and image to convince you that they hold your loved one. If the voice and image are accurate, most people will send the money.

IRS Collection Letters

Scammers have used phony IRS letters demanding payment for years. Often you could identify phony letters by typos and grammatical mistakes. Now AI creates perfect letters, and scammers often follow up with phone calls demanding payment. Rather than paying, demand an in-person meeting and have a family member with you at the meeting.

The AARP warns to watch for these additional AI scams.

· The too-good-to-be-true offer from a foreign country. These scammers can use the AI power of Chatbox-like programs to write emails in perfect English, making their promises of great riches more convincing.

· The powerful multi-tool approach. The scammer combines an AI-generated email request with a copied voice and a Zoom picture to convince you that the call for help is real.

· The doomsday approach. The scammer gives the AI program all your information and instructs the computer to create the foolproof scam. 

Eyal Benishti, CEO of Ironscales, a company that protects companies from online scams, raised this possibility during a recent interview with AARP. 

With advanced AI, a criminal will also be able to give the software tasks,” he says, such as “your task is to convince Christina to wire money or give a credit-card number… Now go and figure out, based on her reply, how to do it.”

For safety we may return to face-to-face transactions.

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This blog covers the Good

Artificial Intelligence(AI) refers to a computer program that feeds an enormous amount of data into a computer and directs the computer to answer a specific question and/or solve a particular question. 

Arend Hintze, an assistant professor of integrative biology and computer science and engineering at Michigan State University, explained that AI can be categorized into four types, beginning with the task-specific intelligent systems in wide use today and progressing to sentient systems, which do not yet exist. The categories are as follows.

• Type 1: Reactive machines. These AI systems have no memory and are task-specific. An example is Deep Blue, the IBM chess program that beat Garry Kasparov in the 1990s. Deep Blue can identify pieces on a chessboard and make predictions, but because it has no memory, it cannot use past experiences to inform future ones.
• Type 2: Limited memory. These AI systems have memory, so they can use past experiences to inform future decisions. Some of the decision-making functions in self-driving cars are designed this way.
• Type 3: Theory of mind. Theory of mind is a psychology term. When applied to AI, it means the system would have the social intelligence to understand emotions. This type of AI will be able to infer human intentions and predict behavior, a necessary skill for AI systems to become integral members of human teams.
• Type 4: Self-awareness. In this category, AI systems have a sense of self, which gives them consciousness. Machines with self-awareness understand their own current state. This type of AI does not yet exist.

TechTarget, a large publisher of enterprise tech content, published "A guide to Articial Intellignece Newsletter" which includes a library of information about AI including these definitions of its four stages. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/definition/AI-Artificial-Intelligence?Offer=abt_pubpro_AI-Insider

 It is not certain whether it will reach development stages three and four. But note the ominous title the Chart gives to the fourth stage –“Self-aware”, meaning the AI can “bypass our intelligence.”

Even at stage two, AI is flourishing  like mushrooms in the spring. The growth occurs in good areas, like medicine and education, and bad areas, like scamming and politics.

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO OLDE GOATS?

Whether you like it or not, AI will affect your life. It may develop a drug that cures a life-threatening condition and extends your life. But you need to be wary of AI’s dark side. Slimy scammers or political operatives may intentionally use darkfakes to distort the facts to victimize you. 

Olde goats who have jobs will be wary of AI programs that allow businesses to save money by streamlining  procedures. Maybe that helps business, but maybe it harms society if AI eliminates more jobs than it creates.

IS AI GOOD FOR ME?

Yes. It could save or lengthen your life.

AI might be the most effective working to solve research problems in the medical and educational fields. I will give you an extremely simplified version of how AI manipulates data super-fast to help Olde Goats. Scientists searching for drugs to help Alzheimer’s victims will give the AI computer program all their information on the disease and on the compounds that might be part of a drug effective against Alzheimer’s. The AI program identifies the potentially helpful compounds much, much, much faster than the researchers would have identified them without AI. 

For example, very recently, according to the Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News, researchers may have saved years by using an AI-guided method to identify three drugs from 2,352 compounds which could decrease anti-aging diseases such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and Alzheimer’s.

Separately, the medical journal Aging described a new 3-step suite of AI programs designed to speed up the process to put tested drugs for Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, cirrhosis, and others on the shelves. Within minutes the program’s first step identifies the causal molecular targets to eliminate; within a week the second step designs novel replacement molecules, and the third step designs and predicts the clinical trials of the drugs.

AI CAN BE  AGEIST

However, according to the World Health Organization(WHO), AI technologies will not be equally beneficial unless treatment developers eliminate all forms of ageism from their development, use, and evaluation. In its policy brief, WHO states that the following changes are necessary:

· Participatory design of AI technologies by and with older people

· Age-diverse data science teams

· Age-inclusive data collection

· Investments in digital infrastructure and digital literacy for older people and their health-care providers and caregivers

· Rights of older people to consent and contest

· Governance frameworks and regulations to empower and work with older people

· Increased research to understand new uses of AI and how to avoid bias

· Robust ethics processes in the development and application of AI.

Olde goats must recognize and support AI’s use in medical research.

5 REASONS WHY I WON’T BUY AN EV NOW  PART 1

This week's EPA pronouncement that two-thirds of the new cars sold seven years from now will be evs demonstrates the government’s blind eye neglect of seniors, the growing lower middle class, and the poor. I will dissect this policy in the next blog.

As an old goat, I treasure each moment of each day and all the little things that make me smile. I have enjoyed driving since I bought my first car in 1959, a '56 Ford. Driving down the street with windows down and radio a little loud, driving to a new place, and driving down a country road with my wife, destination unclear. I think many old goats share similar feelings.

My cars have all been affordable, comfortable, and amenable to my directions. If I must give up my car, I want something of equal value back. The current evs do not provide that. 

They certainly are not affordable. I have limited income and maxxed out dreams. I do not want to pay 40-60,000 for an ev. 

They do not seem comfortable. I think would be like sitting in front of a computer in a very small room. I rode in an Uber driver’s Tesla in Vegas(of course). I could not believe the large size of the screen nor the near-constant directives from a voice that reminded me of a backseat harpy.

The ev does only what its electricity-addicted battery allows. Say you want to go directly from A to D. Your math and your map tell you the ev can make it with volts to spare. But the boring and cautious ev likely will route you through B and C to satisfy its battery. And don't even think about a drive in the country to a destination unclear. 

Maybe one day I will consider an ev will be the quality of a car. But not now for these reasons:

· COST

Average Price of the Top Ten Best-Selling EVs  

The average price of the top ten electric vehicles in the US is about $68,817, with an average of $57,750 for the low-end trim of each model and $70,460 for the high-end trim of each model.  For these ten EVs, prices range from $26,500 at the low end (the Chevrolet Bolt EV) and go all the way up to $119,990 for the most expensive trim of the Tesla Model X (still the base MSRP, since you can option the Model X up to $144,590).

Information from Find My Electric “The Ultimate EV Marketplace”

Most 70+ men probably would not want to pay these prices for a vehicle, except perhaps for the Chevy Volt. For example, using a price of $62,000, the approximate mean between the low-end high and low prices, and putting down 20% in down payment and trade-in, your monthly payment for a 7-year loan would be about $850 which is a lot to spend on a vehicle at this time of your life.

SUVs sold best in 1922, and the Toyota RAV-4 was the best-selling SUV at a base price of $23,000. This year, the b74x, Toyota’s electric SUV, starts at $42,000, an increase of $19K.

Many of us like or liked our F-150 which has been the bestselling truck for 46 consecutive years. Its base price for the EV Lightening has quietly increased from about $41,000 when Ford started its order list in October 2021 to $56,000 now. 

· ROUTE

The range provided by your battery and the location of charging stations will determine your route. You may have to go places that you do not want to go or travel an out-of-the-way route to reach your destination. And this could hours to your road trip. And it would eliminate side trips to areas devoid of charging stations.

· CHARGING STATIONS

Companies own and maintain these. Because they make money from the sale of electricity, they will for sure install stations in high ev traffic areas like major highways and busy resorts. Low-income and rural areas likely will be left behind. 

According to a J.D. Power's study, the number of failed attempts at a charging station increased from 15 percent in the first quarter of 2021 to 21 percent in the third quarter of 2022. I presume you would have to shorten the distance between charging stations to ensure you had mileage in the bank to get to another station.

· EMERGENCIES

I am thinking about natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes that could cut off power to the power stations. You would be stranded in your ev unless you had a generator at home.

I would rather have a gas car. Gasbuddy.com will list the names of gas stations with fuel in stricken areas, and some states have laws requiring gas stations to install transfer switches to allow the use of a generator to provide power to the pumps.

· ENVIRONMENT

Considering this alone, less pollution from evs should improve the environment. However, I am not convinced that the government-orchestrated switch to EV, with the unknown effects of this tsunamic change on the American way of life, will have a net positive effect on the environment. More on this next week.

Topic for  April -------

What is the favorite car you have owned?

Tell us about it.

Ostensibly, to reduce air pollution, the federal government and seven states want to force Americans to by ev's. The country has undergone major changes for the better but has never been driven by this mini-Mao tactic of government coercion.

The introduction of the Model T, which altered the meaning of the word horsepower, provides the best example of this change. After unsuccessfully introducing several cars, Ford introduced the Model T in 1909. It cost $825. 10,666 vehicles were sold. However, it caught on with the public. In 1911,34,857 were sold. Sales increased based on public demand, which reduced the cost which allowed Ford to reduce the price, which increased the number of buyers. This process continued through 1923 when more than two million Model Ts were purchased at $364 apiece. Competitors began producing more desirable vehicles, and Ford built the last of the 15 million Model Ts in 1927. 

But this process of demand and supply between consumer and manufacturer continued and irreversibly changed the U.S. into a country with millions of registered vehicles in 2021.

For this reason alone, the federal and state government should cease interfering and allow this process to continue. As evs and their charging systems improve, more people will choose to buy an ev, and prices will fall, increasing the number of buyers. In a perfect world, gas vehicles will follow the horse and buggy to private property and museums.

But there are two other reasons why federal and state governments should go no further with this misguided project.

The ev needs a lithium battery, and lithium is an expensive mineral. Most of the lithium is mined in China, Chile, Argentina, and Australia. China refines most of the lithium, and sources most of the U.S.'s lithium. There is one small mine in the U.S. The U.S. ev manufacturers must compete with China, Germany, and all other countries producing evs for lithium. It has been likened to a gold rush. According to an International Energy Agency(IEA) report, existing mines and mines under construction will meet only 50% of the projected lithium need by 2030.

So, the questions are; Whether the manufacturers will have lithium batteries for the 8M vehicles the government is demanding they build? And if the answer is “who knows”, Is it not immoral for the government to demand that their citizens buy evs with no batteries?

Finally, environmental concerns exist on the front and the back ends. Despite being a relatively new industry, lithium extraction has a track record of land and water pollution. On the back end, the search continues for an ecologically safe way to dispose of or recycle lithium batteries. 

Finally, I am not alone in thinking this plan will not work. The respected international news service Reuters is equally skeptical. Check out https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOS-ELECTRIC/USA/mopanyqxwva/

Dan Bell

March 21, 2023

At sixteen I was nervous as hell as I headed toward the office door. A short guy smudged with grease with a ciggie hanging from his mouth met me halfway. He introduced himself as Don the owner. I told him I wanted the gas station attendant job for the summer. Don silently inspected me for what seemed like a couple days, then told me to follow him. I remember that I said no when he asked if I was afraid of work. Don told me to start work the day after school ended. I couldn’t believe I got the job.  The station was the real full-service deal. Two sets of two pumps. Two bays. Mechanic on duty. Located at a main intersection on the newly constructed I-25 in suburban south Denver, summer travelers joined neighborhood regulars lining up at the pumps. A black, electrified cord running across the tarmac rang ding-ding when a car ran over it, calling me into action. I was the first man up that summer. Through the open window, the summer’s call-and-response went something like this:“How can I help you?”“Give me five dollars”“Regular or hi-test?”“Regular.” One day Don heard me offer “cheap or expensive” gas. After the customer left, he got in my face shouting that I should never use the word cheap to describe the products. Cheap, he said, means inferior. The tone of Don’s words imprinted my teenage brain. Sixty-four years later, I still ignore products advertised as “cheap”. I washed all the windows automatically and, if the driver wanted, I checked the tires. Under the hood, I wiped the dipstick clean with my red shop rag and guide it back into its hole for a measurement, checked the water by very, very gently turning the radiator cap to release the pressure. and checked the fan belt. The job ended with the bang of the hood.It could be car after car for hours. For the first time, I dripped the sweat from working hard, licked the blood from scraped knuckles, and laughed at bad jokes with men. I liked being included when Don, Joe, Kulakowski, Jerry, and the rest of the crew gathered around the red Coke machine to play a game I think Don invented. We each flipped the bottle over to get the city name where it was bottled. The farthest away won. Don is one of my memorable men. My firsts with him included my first beer in a bar and a visit to the dog races. Most importantly, Don taught me to value blue-collar work and gave me a deep respect for blue-collar workers which, in turn, gave me the confidence to take jobs as a tree trimmer, roofer, cab driver, grocery bagger, and lobster fisherman before I went to law school.I worked at the station for two summers before going away to college. At the Christmas break, I went to see Don about the next summer. He didn’t have the station anymore. I didn’t want any job. It would not have been the same without Don. 
 

Men over 65 have the highest suicide rate of any age group, according to the National Institute of Health(NIH): 24.7 per 100,000 for men 65-74 compared to 5.6 for women that age and 40.7 for men over 75, more than 10 times the 3.9  rate for women in that age group. No one has established a precise cause, but irrelevance, depression, and poor physical and mental health are prime suspects.

Olde Goats generally were in charge during our prime work lives. We called the shots and set the agenda. That power and control became part of who we were. It fell away when we retired creating a cavern in our core. Unless we will it otherwise, the cavern walls will erode forming the deep pit known as depression.

Fortunately, we can control our own relevance by our actions. . The LSU women’s basketball team is a very recent example erasing irrelevance. In 2021, that team finished 9-13 and was totally irrelevant in terms of the NCAA tournament. The school acted in 2021 to become relevant by hiring a tigress who pieced together the team that became very relevant in 2023.

You can achieve, on your own, the same degree of relevance.

1. Be Relevant. Advocating for a return to” back-in-the-day” will make you irrelevant. The tech devices are here to stay. However, you will be relevant if you teach your grandchildren what they cannot learn from these devices like how to change a tire and how to pack a suitcase. 

2. Be Active. To me, this means doing all that your body will allow. My cardio said that the heart loves exercise. Build a personal exercise routine that stretches your muscles. Respect your body’s changes. Before COVID, I regularly was on the podium for 5K runs in my age bracket. Now, my body has told me that my knees limit me to hiking and daily walks and that my torn rotator cuff keeps me on the sideline for golf and pickleball. 

3. Be a Mentor or a Volunteer. This automatically could make you feel relevant because it may replace the sense of satisfaction your job gave you. Helping a child or another Olde Goat is special.

4. Maintain your Health. This has two parts. First, you need to take care of yourself by getting the necessary protein, exercise, water, and sleep. I will blog later about my PEWS plan. Second, you must let the medical providers take care of you. I don’t mean that you should become a hypochondriac. You know your body. If you have something new that doesn’t go away, make an appointment. That growth may not be pre-cancerous but, then again, it may be. My shortness of breath lead to a heart valve replacement three years ago. If I had ignored it, I would not be here today.

5. Share your experiences. No one else has your life experiences which you wove into the national fabric of the last 70+ years. Like jewels, each story gives color and texture to the picture you present to family members and friends. At every chance, tell your story and listen to the stories of others. You may find something in common.

Help other Olde Goats by posting here your tricks to remain relevant.

COMMENTS

 Thanks Dan.  I particularly liked Point 1 - teaching the non-tech to the kids.  Jimmy is particularly good at that with Avery, it's nice to see.  Have to work more on that myself with our grandkids.

Benn    V.